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A Hungarian Military Cull is Underway

Ungarische Soldaten an der Grenze zu Kroatien

(Bild: AFP)

As Americans remain interested in domestic news and the Ukraine war dominates European media cycles, an interesting development is quietly underway in Hungary. To most non-Hungarians, the current political direction in Hungary has been disappointing, if not outright concerning. Europeans would argue that Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, has shifted his nation away from traditional European structures, and his most recent effort axes hundreds of officers and non-commissioned officers from the Hungarian military and is cause for further alarm.

Prime Minister Orban has served as in the office since 2010. Over these twelve years, he has undertaken some provocative positions counter to NATO and the European Union (EU). Two of these include interfering in refugee inflows and blocking EU support for Ukraine. The Hungarian leader’s actions not only frustrate his neighbors and allies. Ironically, they appear to be welcomed by Russian leader Vladimir Putin. After Orban’s recent election victory in 2022, Putin congratulated the re-elected Prime Minister publicly. Additionally, Orban was the only EU leader to receive a New Year’s note from Putin. 

Colonel (in Ruhe) Jeffrey Fischer, US Air Force, und Autor der „Curt Nover“-Buchserie

(Bild: zVg)

Within the past two weeks, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s regime has taken additional steps. A new decree affords Hungarian Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky the unilateral ability to terminate soldier’s careers who have reached the age of 45 and have at least 25 years of actual service. Soldiers identified for termination will have a two-month grace period to transition out of the military. Those removed would be granted a partial 70% retirement salary, or if they find work, could receive 100% of their pension upon reaching retirement age. According to Szalay-Bobrovniczky, the rationale is, „In order for young people to advance, it is necessary to transform the command and officer staff. (This is) for the application of modern weapon systems, operational and combat procedures, for the related training and exercise tasks, as well as for successful recruitment, a well-prepared young officer and non-commissioned officer staff with international experience is essential.“ Many Hungarian press outlets have reported on the issue, but strangely it has stayed out of Western media, nor reported in English.

„Up or out“ system
The Hungarian military, like most in Europe, is structured differently than the United States. Military personnel must work until the age of retirement (65). Officers and Noncommissioned Officers, no matter the top rank they achieve, remain in service for years, perhaps decades, occupying billets that inhibit a normal promotion process. The U.S. Department of Defense operates an ‘up or out’ system, forcing personnel to exit the military a few years after being passed over for further promotion. The U.S. system allows for a much healthier promotion system, avoiding senior rank stagnation like the European model. Worth noting, U.S. veterans have many future employment opportunities via a large military industrial complex or other opportunities. In Europe, future employment opportunities are scarce, and post military employment is the exception, not the rule. This is a fundamental reason that European nations do not adopt the U.S. model. 

Because a good number of European militaries can’t promote at a normal rate because of a senior rank induced log jam, a force reduction effort such as the Hungarian decree is perhaps understandable. Unfortunately, in this case, the nation is Hungary and a current ruler with a questionable track record. Right or wrong, most of Viktor Orban’s actions are viewed with a critical eye.

Agnes Vadai, the former Hungarian State Secretary of National Defense, is one of the more vocal critics of this recent decree. According to Ms. Vadai, she was frustratingly blindsided by the announcement. She stated the Parliament received no prior notification, something which should have happened. Further, Ms. Vadai questions the legality of the decree on two grounds. First, the decree was not voted on by parliament, and second, the force reduction decree is not in line with democratic values as it gives the Defense Minister a ‘judge, jury, and executioner’ position to cherry pick which officers will be expunged. For context, U.S. military Reduction in Forces (RIFs) regulations stipulate a board must be convened to oversee the selection process. In Hungary’s case, the selection process is left solely to the Defense Minister. Given Ms. Vadai’s long-standing position within Hungarian political circles and her knowledge of Viktor Orban’s operatives, she fears officers selected for removal will be those with NATO experience, international assignments and speak foreign languages, in effect, a ‘de-NATO-fication’ of the Hungarian military.

Questionable timing
Last week, over 170 officers were rumored to be notified of removal from the Defense Ministry staff. Beginning Monday, 23 January, officers outside of the ministry staff will be notified. The total number purged remains a mystery, yet another issue Ms. Vadai takes umbrage over. „The decree is literally open-ended, with no limits as to how many personnel the Defense Minister can rid of from service. Theoretically, he could remove every single person over the age of 45,“ she laments. Lastly, Ms. Vadai questions the timing for the decree. „Just two years ago, the Hungarian Defense Ministry rolled out a new personnel policy. This decree completely upends that policy, and for what? One thing militaries and soldiers need is stability. Executing this decree now provides no stability and induces an unhealthy amount of uncertainty within our ranks.“

Ms. Vadai’s concerns may have merit. A quick look into Hungarian Defense Minister Szalay-Bobrovniczky’s background exposes some worrying information. In 2020, while the Ambassador to London, Ambassador Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky purchased a 50% stake in the Hungarian company Transmashholding Hungary, becoming the co-owner. That company is a subsidiary to Transmashholding Russia. The other co-owner of Szalay-Bobrovniczky’s company is Hungary’s Russian party. While it’s important to note this Russian tie is to his personal life, not his governmental career, the Hungarian Defense Minister is just one of many European leaders with Russian economic ties.

(Bild: AFP)

To Hungary’s neighbors, this decree is yet another in a long list of disappointment. According to Gunther Fehlinger, an Austrian leading the committee for Austrian membership in NATO, „The Hungarian military was one of the few remaining institutions that remained uninfected by Orban’s rule. Sadly, it appears that is no longer the case. “The frustration with Hungary across Europe has become palpable, as some allies have voiced a desire to remove Hungary from NATO and the EU. Interestingly, neither is technically possible. Both organizations have no bylaws or rules to force out a nation state. Voluntary removal is the only way Hungary could exit the organizations, much like Britain did a few years ago from the EU.

As Defense Minister Szalay-Bobrovniczky continues to implement his decree, the people of Hungary are left to take on a ‘wait and see’ approach. Neither the people, the Parliamentary Defense Committee, nor the Parliament itself has insight as to who or how many personnel the Hungarian Defense Minister will remove. When asked if Ms. Vadai was concerned if a ‘next step’ could be Hungary withdrawing from future NATO commitments, she said, „I truly hope not.“ The frustration in her voice was evident. Clearly, Ms. Vadai realizes that ‘hope’ is an uncomfortable position when discussing national security.

U.S. Air Force Colonel (Retired) Jeffrey H. Fischer (Twitter @JeffFisch) is a 30-year military aviator with seven combat tours in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Balkans. Additionally, he served as a Defense Official at U.S. Embassies Austria and Kosovo. While raised in the greater Chicagoland area, he currently resides in Austria as an award-winning author of „Live Range“ and „Balkan Reprisal,“ both available globally on Amazon.

The views expressed are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense, the U.S. government or the Kronen Zeitung.