"The calculation is ..."

Why now? What Putin’s attack on Scholz reveals

Olaf Scholz is sticking (for the time being) to his no to Taurus deliveries to Ukraine.

(Bild: dpa-Pool)

Olaf Scholz is currently having to do something he is extremely reluctant to do: explain himself! The German Chancellor is being increasingly cornered by Vladimir Putin's wiretapping attack. And it is becoming increasingly clear what is really at stake for both sides in the Taurus debate.

The German Chancellor doesn't want to hear any more about Taurus cruise missiles. No wonder, because he cuts a disastrous figure in the debate. After months of questions, the Social Democrat finally explained in detail last week why he does not want to make the weapon system available to Ukraine.

The half-truths of Olaf Scholz
He has managed to do several things at once: Firstly, the German has exposed two NATO allies. The UK and France are actively helping to guide long-range missiles towards Russian targets, Scholz claimed at a media event, to the indignation of many.

He also based his second, half-baked argument on this highly dangerous statement: Ukraine would not be able to operate the Taurus weapons system without German support.

Olaf Scholz is sticking (for the time being) to his no to Taurus deliveries to Ukraine.

(Bild: dpa-Pool)

London and Paris disagree. And now it's getting particularly embarrassing: a chat between high-ranking Bundeswehr soldiers recorded by Russia also dismantles his construct. After a few weeks of training, Kiev would very well be able to control the cruise missiles without German participation.

The basta announcement
And now? Now Scholz is shutting down, duped and cornered by Putin's bugging coup. During a school visit in Sindelfingen (Baden-Württemberg) on Monday, a pupil asked the Chancellor: "Leadership means putting your foot down. Why don't you do that?" It's the famous drop too much. 

He had just put his foot down. Control is the key word. You can't deliver a weapons system that goes a long way and not think about it. And then he repeated: if you want to have control and that is only possible if German soldiers are involved, that is out of the question for him. "I'm the Chancellor, and that's why this applies!" That's it, that's it.

Putin is leading the way at the moment.

(Bild: AFP)

Trust is good, control is better, is the motto in the German Chancellery. Scholz is obviously afraid that Kiev would send the Taurus towards Moscow without German guard rails. Experts agree that even Putin has respect for this. This also explains the timing of the release of the recording. "The calculation behind the publication is that the Chancellor is digging himself into his position. Instead of listening to his own officers, Scholz did exactly that and reacted with basta," explains Norbert Röttgen, CDU politician and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, when asked.

As a signal to Moscow, this is devastating because it shows that Russian pressure is having an effect on us.

Norbert Röttgen

Bild: AFP

The Russian propaganda machines have been running hot since the wiretapping scandal. Lies, distortions and threats are being made. Germany is planning an attack on Russia, is the overriding headline. Berlin is increasingly losing the control that Scholz craves.

Putin sets the tone
According to Röttgen, the chancellor's mishap of the past few days has serious consequences. "As a signal to Moscow, this is devastating because it shows that Russian pressure is having an effect on us," the CDU man told krone.at. The "leak" confirms that Scholz lied about the possible use of Taurus cruise missiles.

That is why the recording is so "explosive". Röttgen: "It undermines his credibility at home and makes him look weak to the outside world."

Röttgen makes serious accusations against the SPD: 

Defense politician and ex-Bundeswehr colonel Roderich Kiesewetter (CDU) also points out: "At the same time, Russia has managed to use it to draw attention away from what is probably the biggest espionage scandal in German history, Wirecard and the mourning for Navalny, where tens of thousands of Russians are on the streets, and Putin is trying to shape the West's image of the enemy in the run-up to the sham elections."

"Propaganda" on the inside
It is about "propaganda" that is primarily directed inwards. "We should not allow ourselves to be influenced by this in Germany under any circumstances," Kiesewetter told krone.at. Scholz must not allow himself to be "deterred". The motto in relation to Taurus should be: not "as long as it takes", but "whatever it takes".

One thing is certain: Putin is forcing his own line of argument on Scholz. The Chancellor has had to explain his no to the Taurus delivery much more often than he had planned due to the recording. Ergo: the path back to a yes is getting longer and longer. "Although Russia has provided insight into its espionage methods with the publication, preventing the Taurus delivery is more important for Russia," Russia expert Gerhard Mangott said in writing. 

According to Mangott, the military defense service and the Bundeswehr have also been exposed on the international stage. Berlin is trying to limit the damage here. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) now assumes that the Bundeswehr's secret communication channels have not been "compromised". Rather, it was a Russian coincidence because a Bundeswehr officer in Singapore took part in the switch via an "open network".

That doesn't sound very reassuring. So how to proceed? For Röttgen, the path is mapped out: "The only sensible course of action now would be to clear up the arguments and show strength towards Putin by giving Ukraine what it needs: Taurus cruise missiles."

No "announcement of eternity"
SPD circles are also saying that the Chancellor's "no" is not a "definitive" one. These are not "eternal statements". In any case, the majority of the FDP and Greens, partners in the traffic light system, are in favor of a Taurus delivery. Meanwhile, Scholz never tires of emphasizing that Germany must not become a party to the war. But Russia's wiretapping propaganda show of the past few days shows: For the Kremlin, they already are!