Alarming study:

Climate change hits ski resorts in the Alps this hard

According to a study by German scientists, the number of days with snow cover in ski resorts will be reduced by around 40 percent in our latitudes by the end of the century.

(Bild: APA/EXPA/JOHANN GRODER)

This year's record winter - in terms of warm temperatures, mind you - is a foretaste of what could become the norm in the future thanks to climate change: "cold seasons" with less snow that lasts longer. A German research team has published an alarming study on the subject. On average, there will be around 40 percent fewer days with snow cover in Alpine ski resorts by the end of the century.

The scientists led by Veronika Mitterwallner from the University of Bayreuth (Germany) collected data on the seven most important regions in the world where ski tourism plays a significant role. They then converted climate scenarios with different levels of greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century to the respective regional conditions in the Alps, the Andes in South America, the North American Appalachians and Rocky Mountains as well as the Japanese, Australian and New Zealand Alps (Southern Alps).

Graphic; Less snow for ski resorts

Previous relevant studies have mostly only looked at small-scale effects of global warming on ski resorts, which is why the focus here is global, according to the scientists.

No more natural snowfall in 13% of ski resorts from 2071
The world region with by far the largest concentration of ski resorts is the European Alps, which, according to the survey by Mitterwallner and colleagues, account for almost 70 percent of the resorts, 15 percent of the ski resorts are located in the Rocky Mountains and seven percent in Japan. From the new analyses, it can be deduced that globally, one in eight ski resorts - i.e. 13 percent - can expect to experience no more natural snowfall in the winter season in the period from 2071 to 2100, according to the paper, which was published in the journal "Plos One". 

Our results indicate potentially negative developments for both the recreational and economic value of skiing and for mountain biodiversity, as endangered high-mountain species could be threatened by the loss of space due to the expansion of ski resorts.

Veronika Mitterwallner von der Universität Bayreuth

Tense situation in Europe too
"In all major ski regions, a substantial decrease in the number of days with natural snow cover is expected under every emission scenario assessed," says Mitterwallner. The figures for Europe also point downwards accordingly - albeit to very different degrees: the most favorable scenario describes stable average temperatures at around 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels ("SSP1-2.6") around the year 2100. In this case, the average number of days with natural snow cover across the entire Alpine arc would fall from 218 (in the period between 1981 and 2010) to 184 in the period 2071 to 2100. With this very optimistic approach, the number of snow days would hardly be reduced compared to the current situation (period 2011 - 2040).

(Bild: APA/EXPA/JOHANN GRODER)

In the scenario with high emissions ("SSP3-7.0") with a temperature increase of around 3.6 degrees by the end of the century, the decline in snow is greatly exacerbated: from a historical 218 to the current 187 days and further to an average of just 137 by 2100. If, on the other hand, we assume "very high" greenhouse gas emissions with a catastrophic increase of around 4.4 degrees, we end up with just 129 snow days in the Alpine ski resorts.

Will snow disappear completely from Australia's ski resorts?
Under such high-emission assumptions, there would be almost no snow at all, especially in Australia's ski resorts. In the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the annual snow cover days in the Australian Alps are reduced by 78 percent, in the New Zealand Alps by 51 percent, in the Japanese Alps by exactly half, in the Andes by 43 percent and in the European Alps by 42 percent. The smallest reductions are in the Appalachians (minus 37 percent) and the Rocky Mountains with 23 percent compared to 1981 to 2010.

Another study by the University of Innsbruck and the University of Waterloo (Canada) recently looked at the economic effects of global warming in North America: in the journal "Current Issues in Tourism", the team estimated the economic losses to the US ski industry due to climate change over the past two decades at over five billion dollars (around 4.6 billion euros).

"Our results indicate potentially negative developments for both the recreational and economic value of skiing as well as for mountain biodiversity, as endangered high mountain species could be threatened by the loss of space due to the expansion of ski resorts," said sports economist Mitterwallner about the new "Plos One" study.

Increasing economic pressure
This means that profitable ski resorts will clearly be located ever higher up and therefore ever closer to the main ridges of the mountain ranges. As a result, the economic pressure on currently sparsely populated retreats for Alpine nature will continue to increase, as infrastructure will be expanded here. In resorts with even less snow at lower altitudes closer to the conurbations, lift operators would have to rely even more than they do now on artificial snowmaking in order to guarantee the widest possible coverage.