Are we experiencing a tipping point?

Kiev bureaucratizes – while Moscow mobilizes

By the end of 2024, the Kremlin wants to have hundreds of thousands of men and women

(Bild: AFP)

The Kremlin announced on Wednesday that it intends to massively increase the size of its military. The troops are to be expanded by several hundred thousand personnel by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, Kiev is drowning in amendments to its own mobilization law.

A few days after Vladimir Putin's "re-election", the Kremlin confirmed a massive increase in troops. Russia, which has recruited hundreds of thousands of contract soldiers, will create two new armies and 30 formations, including 14 divisions and 16 brigades, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told his generals in Moscow.

Are we experiencing a tipping point?
The aim is to "push the enemy further out of their positions", Putin's top officer announced. The move comes as no surprise to Western military analysts. "After the so-called presidential election, there will undoubtedly be a further mobilization," predicted Ukrainian historian Andriy Kudryachenko in an interview with krone.at a few days ago.

According to Western intelligence services, the conflict is currently heading towards a tipping point. Ukraine is having major problems relieving its exhausted frontline personnel. A corresponding mobilization law has been stuck in the Ukrainian parliament for months. There seems to be no solution in sight, as more than 4,000 amendments still need to be processed before the draft can be passed. 

There are major differences of opinion about lowering the minimum age from 27 to 25 in order to be sent into combat. Electronic registration registers and increased penalties for conscientious objectors are also causing heated debates. 

Kiev's huge budget shortfall
The Ukrainian military command wants to mobilize 500,000 troops. It is not known how this is to be financed. Ukraine is already struggling with huge budget shortfalls. Every person conscripted is lost as a regular employee and taxpayer. More and more entrepreneurs are therefore calling for a balance between the "front and the economy". This is because Kiev has to finance its military budget from tax revenues - without the help of allies.

The latest surveys show: Fewer and fewer Ukrainians are willing to fight on the front line.

(Bild: AP)

In addition, the exhausted frontline troops have too little ammunition. Demand and wear and tear are so high that they cannot currently be covered by the West, while Russia has massively boosted its arms industry in recent years.

Putin can be more brutal
According to arms experts, one of the biggest problems is that a dictatorship can be more ruthless and exploitative than a democratic constitutional state. Putin does not have to deal with application bureaucracy or employee standards.

In addition, the sanctions imposed by the EU and the USA repeatedly come to nothing. Security expert Rafael Loss recently explained to the Tagesschau news program that Russia has found alternative routes via Central Asia and China. "Refrigerators, microwave ovens and washing machines then find their way to Russia and are cannibalized in order to use sanctioned computer chips for the production of drones or missiles."