Filzmaier analyzes:

How going to church influences the Salzburg election

A duel for the "red fortress" of Salzburg between Bernhard Auinger (left) and Kay-Michael Dankl.(Bild: REUTERS, Tschepp Markus, Daniel Scharinge Krone KREATIV,)

The run-off election for the office of mayor in the city of Salzburg takes place today. Either Bernhard Auinger from the SPÖ, who narrowly failed twice in 2017 and 2019, will become mayor. Or the communist Kay-Michael Dankl.

1 Being a political scientist is sometimes a thankless job. In the last two weeks, both in Salzburg and far beyond its borders, you meet a lot of know-it-alls who have supposedly known the outcome of the election for a long time. Because everyone naturally has a 50:50 chance of being right, there will be a considerable number of "guessers" left tonight who will say: "I knew it right away!"

2. the scientific forecast, on the other hand, is unspectacular: nobody can know beforehand! Remember the 2016 presidential election, where Norbert Hofer was 14 percentage points ahead of Alexander Van der Bellen in the first election, only to be narrowly beaten in the end. Predictions about the voting behavior of those whose favorite candidate has already dropped out - in Salzburg, that means ÖVP, FPÖ and Green voters in particular - are an uncertain matter.

3 Moreover, the effect of election recommendations has rarely been proven by science. There were also only indirect statements from the FPÖ that they did not want communists. Nevertheless, it is highly questionable whether fans of the "blue" party will vote for the red Auinger instead of the dark red Dankl or not go to the polling station at all.

4 . voter flow analyses for Salzburg are not publicly available, or they exist - excellently calculated by Viennese statistics professor Erich Neuwirth - only without taking postal votes into account and therefore inaccurate. According to this, Auinger would appeal to a larger proportion of ÖVP supporters, which would be an advantage for the run-off. But perhaps this group would rather make a pilgrimage to church than to the polling station?

5 Consequently, the turnout factor is decisive. Two weeks ago, only 54 percent of people in Salzburg took part. Presumably even fewer will cast their vote this time and the same as then. And not the same people will stay at home. In purely mathematical terms, Auinger and Dankl could both win the most votes from the non-voter camp. So anything is possible.