Ukraine counters Putin

Expert: “Attack puts Kremlin in need of explanation”

(Bild: APA/AFP/POOL/Mikhail METZEL)

The terrorist militia IS has claimed responsibility for the devastating attack in Moscow that left over 130 dead. However, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin claims that a trail leads to Ukraine, which Kiev rejects as "absurd". "The attack puts the Kremlin in need of an explanation," says Russia expert Gerhard Mangott in an assessment to the "Krone" newspaper.

"How could the immense security apparatus not eliminate the attackers in advance, especially since there had been warnings from the USA?" asks Mangott. Their secret services had already pointed out the danger of an imminent attack at the beginning of March.

Putin dismissed warnings as provocation
On March 7, the US embassy in Moscow wrote that it was following reports that extremists had imminent plans to attack large gatherings in Moscow, including concerts. It called on compatriots to avoid crowds and to be careful in other ways. Putin dismissed these warnings as Western provocation. The aim of such warnings from the West was to destabilize the situation in Russia, he claimed at the beginning of the week during a speech at the FSB domestic intelligence service.

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Following the attack in Crocus City Hall, which left at least 133 people dead, including three children, the Kremlin announced the arrest of eleven people. These include the four suspected attackers. According to the state agency TASS, the main suspects were brought to the Russian capital for questioning on Saturday evening. The four men were driven in a strictly secured convoy from the Bryansk region in the south of the country, where they had been arrested, to the so-called Investigative Committee. An application for an arrest warrant is to be made in court in the coming days. They are all facing life imprisonment, it was added.

According to the Ministry of the Interior, they are not Russians. However, it did not say which nationalities were involved. Many are possible: "The terror cell consists of members of various nationalities," explained Mangott. According to terror experts, the IS Khorasan Province (ISPK), which emerged from the IS, is probably behind the attack. The terror group had planned an attack on St. Stephen's Cathedral in Vienna at Christmas last year.

"Retaliation" for operations in Syria?
The IS propaganda channel Amak spoke of a "heavy blow" against Russia, which was aimed at "thousands of Christians in a music hall". IS fights followers of Christianity and regards them as infidels. However, Moscow's foreign policy has also been a thorn in the side of the Islamists for several years. "The terrorist act could be 'retaliation' for the close relations between Russia and the Afghan Taliban, the main opponent of IS Khorasan. But it could also be 'retaliation' for the deployment of Russian soldiers in Syria, who have been fighting there on the side of President al-Assad against the Islamists since 2015," says the Russia expert.

The feeling of insecurity among the Russian population will increase.

Politikwissenschaftler Gerhard Mangott

Bild: Christof Birbaumer

First shot into the crowd, then set on fire
On Friday evening, perpetrators in camouflage clothing with automatic weapons opened fire on visitors to Crocus City Hall on the outskirts of Moscow, according to the investigative committee responsible for serious crimes. Some victims were killed by gunfire, others by a large fire in the building complex. According to media reports, the attackers started the fire with petrol cans that they had been carrying in rucksacks. In addition to the deaths, the worst terrorist attack in Russia for 20 years also left more than 120 people injured. In Moscow, long queues of people formed on Saturday morning to donate blood.

"The horror of the war against Ukraine has now been compounded by the Islamist attack, from which Russia had been spared for many years. The feeling of insecurity among the Russian population will increase," Gerhard Mangott is convinced.

Russia has repeatedly been the scene of serious terrorist attacks in the past. In September 2004, a hostage drama in a school in Beslan (North Ossetia) ended with 360 dead. Chechen rebels also took more than 800 hostages in a Moscow musical theater in October 2002. During the liberation operation, 129 hostages and around 40 terrorists died. In the fall of 1999, more than 300 people were killed in several bomb attacks on residential buildings in Moscow. The explosions were blamed on Chechen terrorists, but were never solved. The FSB was presumably behind the attacks in order to provide the then Prime Minister Putin with a pretext for the war against Chechnya.

Kremlin: "Perpetrators wanted to hide in Ukraine"
On Saturday afternoon, the Kremlin leader spoke of Ukraine's alleged involvement in the terrorist attack. Referring to four of the arrested men, he said: "They tried to hide and moved in the direction of Ukraine". Some people on the Ukrainian side were prepared to let them cross the border. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on Telegram: "We now know in which country these damn bastards wanted to hide from their persecution: in Ukraine."

Of course, this version cannot stand up to criticism. Everyone in the world understands this, except perhaps the zombified Russian population.

Andrij Jussow, Vertreter des ukrainischen Militärgeheimdienstes

The Ukrainian military intelligence service HUR clearly rejected the allegations. Putin's accusation is an "absolutely false and absurd statement", said HUR representative Andriy Yusov. "The full-scale invasion has been going on for more than two years, the border areas are full of enemy troops, special agents, representatives of secret services and security forces. The border line is mined, it is monitored by all means - including aerial reconnaissance from both sides." The Ukrainian added: "Of course, this version cannot stand up to criticism. Everyone in the world understands this, except perhaps the zombified Russian population." Yusov also accused the Kremlin of wanting to use the tragedy in Moscow to further intensify repression in its own country.

Despite assurances from Kiev that it was not involved in the attack, the influential Russian parliamentarian Andrey Kartapolov called for a clear and concrete reaction on the battlefield if the opposite were to happen.

"Pure cynicism"
For Russia expert Gerhard Mangott, "it is not surprising that individual politicians in Russia are trying to cast suspicion on Ukraine. This would at least strengthen the narrative that Ukraine is also a threat to the Russian civilian population. This could mobilize citizens emotionally for the Russian war against this country. But that would be pure cynicism."