"Krone" commentary

Ritual of retaliation

Analyzed for the "Krone": foreign policy expert Kurt Seinitz

(Bild: stock.adobe.com, Krone KREATIV)

Ping-Pong: This is the insane Middle Eastern logic on the way to the ultimate conflagration: the biggest attack in military history with 330 drones, cruise missiles and rockets - but almost all of them shot down. (Ukraine would like to be so lucky).

Both sides report success. Tehran can celebrate a "great victory" because in the Middle East the appearance (of courage) is more important than the reality and Israel sees it only as a stage in the forward defense against its enemies.

The Middle East is the great arena of hasbardeurs who play with fire, the ritual of retaliation of retaliation of retaliation, until the script slips out of their hands. Israel had bombed two generals on the Iranian embassy grounds in Damascus who were directing the Lebanese Hezbollah against Israel from there. As a result, the Iranian regime dared to attack Israel (and its fellow Arabs!) directly for the first time since it seized power 45 years ago.

Early Sunday morning, interceptor missiles were fired into the sky over Jerusalem.

(Bild: ASSOCIATED PRESS, Krone KREATIV)

This puts Israel under self-imposed pressure to attack Iran. Two possibilities: Retaliation against the Iranian launch bases or against the regime as such. No doubt: Israel's leadership must be itching to deal a death blow to its arch-enemy even before it has acquired nuclear weapons.

However, US President Joe Biden has publicly signaled to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that there is no US support for this. Especially as Tehran had previously let Washington know that this was a "limited action" and that US military facilities in this geopolitical area would remain untouched if the US did not intervene. Somehow, the Iranian revolutionary generals must also have suspected that their weapons were inadequate.

According to Biden, Israel should be satisfied with the US, British and Arab partners (outside Israel!) shooting down the drone squadron. Never before has the weakness of Iran's weapons systems been more clearly demonstrated.

But Israel will not let Iran decide when enough is enough. The mullah regime has survived the 45 years because it played with fire without burning itself. Tehran is the spider in the web that has made the Middle East the center of world crisis for decades.

In their instinct for power, the mullahs masterfully avoided having to bear the consequences of war themselves. They let proxies wage war: Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis.

Now there is direct confrontation. Does the mullahs' regime realize that it could mean the end if it miscalculates? It has not had the people behind it for the longest time - apart from the usual shouters. All the money flowed into armaments, bypassing the real needs of the people.

The regime has proven for over 25 years that it is incapable of reform. It brought the hatred of Israel into Iranian society (which hardly existed before) in order to gain influence in the large Arab-Sunni world, even to take the lead.

During my stays in Iran, I have heard time and again from the people (who know nothing other than this regime) that they want nothing to do with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. This should not be ignored when it comes to military retaliation against the Mullah regime.