Iran-Israel crisis

Middle East: breathing space or breathing before the storm?

This picture shows an airstrike by Israeli forces on Gaza on May 13, 2021.

(Bild: AP)

After the mutual attacks, Israel and Iran are trying to exercise restraint. The conflict is - on very thin - ice. A new chapter has been opened in the Middle East. And the pause for breath could be followed by a storm.

The world is still holding its breath. The escalation spiral between Israel and Iran has been stopped short of war between the two regional superpowers. Or rather: the pause has been pressed. A return to the "status quo ante" - i.e. to relations before the attacks - is no longer possible. The Middle East has opened a new chapter. In which Iran and Israel attacked each other directly for the first time in their history.

This raises a few questions, as Ali Vaez, advisor to the US President on Middle East affairs, put it: Was this all a one-off event now or just a prelude? Do both sides have the same understanding of where the new borders lie? And with the precedents now set, what happens next time?

This time, the Israeli missile defense system worked.

(Bild: AP)

The fact that Israel attacked Isfahan of all places was no coincidence. The city is of great value to the regime not because of its rich history and culture, but because it is home to the center of Iran's nuclear program. That was an unmistakable threat. Reinhard Schulze from the University of Bern, one of the leading Middle East experts in the German-speaking world, told Die Krone that Israel was "intervening in stages". What we have seen now "was the lowest level." A signal that they can target the nuclear program. A signal that Iran has also sent out with its attack of over 300 missiles, drones and cruise missiles.

The problem is that both have very different ideas about red lines. "Israel defines the targeted use of medium-range missiles with high explosive power as a red line," says Schulze. "In Iran, the situation is different due to the complicated balance of power. The Revolutionary Guards, the military and the government each have their own ideas about what the red lines are." In addition, the Islamic Republic is currently struggling with immense internal problems. Iran could turn the current threats - both external and internal - into a battle for its own existence.

Centrifuges at the Iranian facility in Natan are enriching uranium, which could potentially be used to build nuclear weapons.

(Bild: AP)

And although Iran's nuclear program is officially only of a civilian nature and the spiritual and secular leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei considers the use of nuclear weapons to be "un-Islamic", experts believe that Iran could use it to create a nuclear threat. At the moment, however, the spiral of violence has been put on pause. What will happen next time is still a scary dream of the future.