Despite US weapons assistance

ISW analysis: Russian attacks will increase

Russische Uragan-Raketenwerfer feuern auf ukrainische Ziele.

(Bild: AP/Russian Defense Ministry Press Service)

Western military experts expect an increase in Russian missile and drone attacks in the coming weeks in view of the billions in military aid for Ukraine approved by the US House of Representatives on Saturday.

According to the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, Moscow will take advantage of the current material and personnel limitations of the Ukrainian army and the unusually dry spring until the window closes and the US aid arrives.

However, the ISW experts also stated in their analysis on Saturday (local time) that the Russians have so far only had isolated tactical successes in offensive operations and no breakthrough on the front line.

Danger of an operationally significant advance
It is to be expected that Russia will take advantage of the weakened Ukrainian air defenses in particular and intensify its attacks with glide bombs, for example. There is still a risk of an operationally significant Russian advance in the war zone in the south and east of Ukraine in the coming weeks.

Kiev wants to regain sovereignty in its own airspace
After an improvement in Ukrainian air defense, the risk for the Russians will increase, it was said. Ukraine is not only expecting air defense systems from the West and the corresponding missiles, but also US F16 fighter jets. The aim of the leadership in Kiev is to regain sovereignty over its own airspace.

Arms aid will not arrive for several weeks
The ISW experts also referred to statements by US officials, according to which the 155 millimeter anti-aircraft missiles and artillery shells urgently needed by Ukraine could be handed over from American warehouses in Europe. Nevertheless, it will take weeks for the aid to actually reach Ukraine.

Green light for US aid package for Ukraine
The US House of Representatives in Washington voted in favor of an aid package of around 61 billion US dollars (equivalent to around 57 billion euros) for Kiev on Saturday (local time) after months of blockade. The necessary approval of the Senate is still pending, but is considered certain.

ISW: Military aid a turning point in the war
According to ISW experts, the US military aid is a turning point in the war in Ukraine; however, important decisions are still pending in Russia, the West and Ukraine that will determine the further course and outcome of the fighting.

"The Kremlin is still in a position to further mobilize its economy and population to support its campaign to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity, and it can decide to make domestically unpopular decisions if it deems them necessary," the experts noted.