Expert skeptical

Even blue trees don’t grow into the sky

(Bild: APA/GEORG HOCHMUTH)

The FPÖ under Herbert Kickl is ahead in all polls - with 30 percent and more. But there are doubts about the figures.

The FPÖ is storming inexorably towards the Ballhausplatz. All the polls put Herbert Kickl's party in first place - snapshots, according to the standard phrase of the competition. The phrase is visibly fading, because moments have become months. Some pollsters put the FPÖ at between 30 and 32 percent. The ÖVP and SPÖ are lagging behind at 21-23 percent.

Haselmayer: "These are false extrapolations"
But are these calculations really correct? Christoph Haselmayer, head of the Institute for Demoscopy and Data Analysis (IFDD), is skeptical. He also has the FPÖ ahead, but "30 or more percent does not add up. These are false projections."

Christoph Haselmayer, Head of the Institute for Public Opinion Research and Data Analysis (IFDD)

(Bild: Jöchl Martin)

How does the pollster come to this conclusion? Haselmayer conducted surveys for the National Council elections in major cities. The result: "The FPÖ is almost always below 20 percent. This means that the blue party has a problem in urban areas. They would have to achieve at least 40 or more percent in rural areas to reach 30 plus nationwide. That is not realistic."

Haselmayer therefore has the FPÖ stable at around 27 percent. In rural areas, however, where the FPÖ scores strongly, there is also the farming community. "And 75 percent of them vote for the ÖVP."

(Bild: APA/GEORG HOCHMUTH)

Salzburg and Innsbruck do not provide any conclusions for the federal election
However, the pollster also emphasizes that no conclusions should be drawn from the elections in Salzburg and Innsbruck for national elections. These were regional elections. Another reason why "blue trees do not grow into the sky" is of a quasi mass-psychological nature.

FPÖ candidate Markus Lassenberger is no longer in the race for mayor of Innsbruck.

(Bild: Christof Birbaumer)

FPÖ positions move to the center
According to political consultant Thomas Hofer, the FPÖ used to be "undervalued". This means that people did not dare to declare their support for the blue party in polls. As a result, they received more percentages than expected in elections. Today it is different. "There has been a reversal, towards an overvaluation."

Right-wing positions are increasingly moving to the "center", the salonability is driving people to openly declare their support for the FPÖ. "Especially in online surveys." However, people may then not go to the polls. This is why Hofer, like Haselmayer, does not see the Blue Party at 30 percent, but at the end of 20 percent.