Billions for Kiev

Will US “enlightenment” change the course of the war?

A wounded frontline soldier receives first aid near Bachmut.

(Bild: AFP)

After months of political blockade, the USA will once again supply Ukraine with weapons. At the center of the American insight is the very politician who has so far stifled all attempts. How did this turnaround come about? And isn't it already far too late to drive Vladimir Putin's troops out of Ukraine?

On paper, Republican Mike Johnson is one of the most powerful men in the USA. As Speaker of the House of Representatives, it was he who prevented a vote on further aid for Ukraine for months - and thus contributed significantly to the Ukrainian frontline crisis.

He was driven to do this by a small, radical core of his party: Trumpists! They are led by MP Marjorie Taylor Greene, who freely refers to the Ukrainians as "Nazis" based on Putin's fantasies. They recently openly threatened to remove Johnson from office if he made a vote possible. At the beginning of the year, Donald Trump himself intervened to prevent similar legislative packages from being passed by Johnson and other loyal Republicans.

A divine inspiration?
But in recent months, while Ukrainian apartment blocks were burning and Putin was systematically bombing civil society, Johnson did something that many elected Republicans are now doing without: his job. "History judges us by what we do," he said shortly before the historic vote in the Capitol.

Part of his about-turn on Ukraine, he said, was information from the American secret services as well as divine assistance. Johnson, who is considered a religious fanatic and is actually part of the Trump faction, had taken part in corresponding briefings for months. There were also long conversations in Joe Biden's Oval Office, which apparently left an impression.

Johnson is caught up in reality
US journalists report that personal accounts from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky shook Johnson to his Christian foundations. 

Participants in the secret meetings outlined that Johnson had become "really aware" of the extent of his previous blockade. An "enlightened" Johnson recently told reporters: "I believe that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed to. I think he could go to the Baltics next. I think there could be a showdown with Poland or one of our NATO allies."

Listen to Johnson's statements:

That sounded very different just a few months ago. "Mr. Speaker" still wanted to extort billions for US border protection before wasting any thought on other lines of conflict that do not directly border the USA. 

Isn't the package much too late?
One 180-degree turn later, the obstructionist has pushed new billions in aid for Ukraine through his chamber - with the full support of the Democrats. The US Senate will follow suit this week. The first deliveries are expected in a few days, as soon as Biden has signed the law. Some of the aid is already in Poland and elsewhere in Europe, writes the Financial Times. The weapons and ammunition there are ready for transportation. But isn't it far too late for that?

Plagued by remorse: Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives

(Bild: AP)

Analysts assume that Russia will intensify its offensive efforts in the coming weeks. Ukrainian soldiers already have to ration their ammunition heavily along the approximately 1000-kilometer-long front line. Selensky recently explained that there are ten Russian shells for every Ukrainian artillery shell. At the beginning of April, army chief Oleksandr Syrsky warned that the situation at the front had "deteriorated considerably".

The majority does not flow directly to Kiev
In addition, a large part of the 61 billion dollar package will not be used directly for Ukraine's needs. Among other things, the money is intended to replenish the depleted arsenals of the USA and its allies. Despite the new aid, Kiev will have to make do with less than in previous years. And this in a situation in which Russia, the enemy in the war, is constantly expanding its own production and can also fall back on the production capacities in Iran and North Korea.

"The aid comes far too late, as Ukraine lost the initiative in October 2023 due to the lack of materials," says Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. Since October, Ukraine has lost 583 square kilometers of territory to the Russian armed forces, largely due to a lack of artillery. Russia has also had time to prepare for offensive operations expected in late spring or early summer. So the new package is just a much-needed band-aid.

The Ukrainians are tired
Ukraine also has another supply problem. Around 300,000 soldiers are in direct front-line operations. Fresh troops are hardly available. The mobilization age, which was recently lowered to 25, and stricter registration requirements for conscripted men should improve the situation.

Selensky received members of the US Congress on Monday: 

At the same time, the willingness to join the army is extremely low. According to a survey, only a good 20 percent of eligible 25 to 59-year-olds can imagine fighting in the army. In addition, more than 700,000 Ukrainians liable for military service are registered as refugees in the EU alone. They are unlikely to return to the country before the end of the war.

USA remains a risk factor
It is also completely unclear when the next injection of billions will come from the USA. Trump could be re-elected in November. It is currently impossible to predict how he will deal with the war in Ukraine. He was conspicuously calm during the most recent vote.

Two days before the Ukraine billions were passed, he announced that the "survival and strength of Ukraine" was also important for the USA. Which completely contradicts his previous Ukraine policy. His inconsistency remains the only constant of the past few days. The only thing that is clear at the moment is that an end to the war is not in sight.

Is Johnson now a reliable partner for Kiev?
The reality is that Johnson now has to fear for his job as spokesperson. Marjorie Taylor Greene has already announced her intention to remove the "traitor" from office. This would repeatedly plunge the US House of Representatives into chaos and render it incapable of acting.

Conspiracy ideologue Taylor Greene now wants to topple Johnson.

(Bild: AP)

But for Johnson, who was reportedly torn between his office and the billions for Ukraine until the very end, another factor plays an important role: his eldest son was recently accepted into the Naval Academy.

"To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son will be starting at the Naval Academy this fall. This is a live ammunition exercise for me, as it is for many American families," Johnson told reporters. The "Enlightened One" has realized one thing above all in recent weeks: "This is not a game, this is not a joke!"