Kaleen right at the front

Who will win the 68th Song Contest according to statistics

According to the statistics, Austria's ESC candidate Kaleen has a good chance of winning.

(Bild: APA/AFP/TT News Agency/Christine OLSSON)

37 countries will be competing against each other in Malmö this year at the 68th Eurovision Song Contest. After the Ukraine war pushed the musical aspects into the background last year, this time it could be the debate about Israel's participation in light of the Gaza war that dominates the coverage. So let's take a closer look at what's happening on stage, at least in the run-up to the event.

Last year, Loreen's victory with "Tattoo" corresponded exactly to the long-standing ESC statistics. Because statistically at least, there are relatively clear success factors that have emerged in the 67 editions since the beginning of the ESC. And one of these is gender.

A look at the list of winners of past contests shows that you tend to have an advantage if you are a solo contestant and a woman: with 38 in total, female participants make up the clear majority of the 70 winners (there were four of them in 1969).

According to the statistics, rave queen Kaleen has a very good chance of winning.

(Bild: APA/TOBIAS STEINMAURER)

The two trans artists Dana International and Conchita Wurst were not even counted. But even so, the balance is clear. So the chances for Austria's candidate Kaleen are also very good this year.

A man has only won the ESC eleven times
In contrast, the number of band victories at the ESC is almost modest at 19, while only eleven times did a man end up with a winning smile on his face. And the men haven't really made up any ground, as only three men have taken home the trophy in the past ten competitions: Mans Zelmerlöw from Sweden (2015), Salvador Sobral from Portugal (2017) and most recently Duncan Laurence from the Netherlands (2019).

The solo men are also lagging behind the women in this year's field of participants. Only 9 out of 37 countries are relying on a single man as a candidate. In contrast, 17 are competing with a solo female singer, and 9 are also relying on bands or duos. And what is new is that with Nemo from Switzerland and Bambie Thug from Ireland, two non-binary people have been chosen as acts. All in all, the whole thing is relatively diverse and balanced.

This ultimately corresponds to the unpredictability of the winning formula in recent years. A woman won in 2023 (Loreen), a band in 2022 and 2021 (Kalush Orchestra and Måneskin), a man in 2019 (Duncan Laurence), a woman in 2018 (Netta), a man in 2017 (Salvador Sobral), a woman in 2016 (Jamala), a man in 2015 (Mans Zelmerlöw) and Conchita in 2014. So the statistics keep everything open.