Political earthquake

Abortion could decide US election

Opponents and supporters protest outside abortion clinics. Donald Trump changes his opinion on abortion depending on the audience, Joe Biden is a supporter.

(Bild: AFP/Getty Images/Rebecca Noble)

No candidate is comfortable with the issue, but it could decide the presidential election in November. The issue of abortion is dividing the USA.

After the US Supreme Court overturned the almost four-decade-old national right to abortion in June 2022, this triggered a permanent political earthquake in the country. In the presidential elections in November, the extremely polarizing issue is seen as Joe Biden's biggest trump card in defending the White House.

His Democratic Party is also hoping to use abortion rights to retain its majority in the Senate and regain it in the House of Representatives. Donald Trump knows this too. The ex-president is suddenly no longer boasting that the law was only overturned by "his" judges. And in typical Trump fashion, he is suddenly attacking members of his own party who are in favor of a complete ban on abortion.

Protest by pro-abortion activists outside a hospital (archive image)

(Bild: AFP/Getty Images/Rebecca Noble)

Prison sentences for help
For the "pro-life" movement in the Republican Party, the Supreme Court ruling was just the first step in implementing the toughest anti-abortion laws in every state. In some cases, 19th century laws were reinstated, making abortion illegal even after rape or incest. In Idaho, Republican Governor Brad Little just signed a law that makes even an out-of-state abortion a criminal offense. Anyone who helps a pregnant minor to have an abortion outside Idaho could face up to five years in prison in future. Many Republicans do not like this either.

Fiercest opponents have little chance
Even in Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana, the majority of mostly conservative citizens spoke out against a complete ban on abortion in referendums. Current polls also show that the fiercest opponents of abortion have the least chance of being elected. Apart from Trump, whose opinion on abortion bans changes depending on the audience, Republican politicians are trying to play down the issue. They prefer to run their campaigns on the "invasion of illegals" and "nationwide suffering due to Biden's economic crisis." Which makes sense, since even among Democratic voters, the issues of securing democracy, climate change and gun violence are more important than abortion.

From left: US President Joe Biden and his rival Donald Trump

(Bild: AP)

Which makes sense, because even among Democratic voters, the issues of safeguarding democracy, climate change and gun violence are more important than abortion. Trump's advisors also never tire of reminding voters in the crucial "swing states" how much they are suffering under Biden. Even though America has recovered economically from the pandemic better than all Western states, a majority of the country is dissatisfied with Biden's policies due to the rise in food and petrol prices.

Mainly young people in favour of legalization
In the end, the turnout of two groups will be decisive. According to surveys, the issue of abortion is the most important factor for one in six Americans between the ages of 18 and 49 when they vote for a candidate in November. 74 percent of those under 30 say that abortion must remain legal.