New poll

Blue soaring and green plummeting in elections

The Greens have not made a lucky choice with their candidate.

(Bild: APA/TOBIAS STEINMAURER)

After five years in government, the Greens are facing bitter times. According to a new poll, they will halve from 14 to seven percent in the National Council elections in the fall. At the other end of the scale is the FPÖ, which is likely to rise from 16 to 28 percent. The ÖVP and SPÖ are in a neck-and-neck race for second place with 23% each.

Christoph Haselmayer's IFDD Institute surveyed 1,000 people between May 15 and 17 on both the EU and the national elections. In the European elections, the figures for the Greens (eleven) and NEOS (twelve) are better because the Beer Party is not running. According to the survey, Dominik Wlazny would receive six percent in the National Council elections and would therefore be firmly represented in parliament. The KPÖ is on the cusp with four percent.

The ÖVP will suffer the biggest loss
In terms of numbers, the ÖVP will suffer the biggest loss because it is starting from an extremely high level. In 2019, it achieved 37.5 percent with Sebastian Kurz. This is also very similar in the EU elections. Here, the People's Party is also at 23% and had 35.5% in 2019. The NEOS made slight gains with Beate Meinl-Reisinger and reached nine percent (2019: eight percent).

(Bild: Krone KREATIV)

Haselmayer clearly attributes the losses for the Greens to the Lena Schilling affair. The announcement by party leader Werner Kogler, who described the reporting as "anonymous farting", "left a lasting mark and was not well received, especially among the Green clientele", according to the pollster. Austria will "probably become more colorful, but also a little less governable than it already is".

No surprises in the European elections
In the EU elections, the FPÖ with Harald Vilimsky is very likely to take first place in Austria for the first time with 27%. According to the survey, the ÖVP with Reinhold Lopatka will come second with 23%, closely followed by Andreas Schieder from the SPÖ with 22%. Helmut Brandstätter would achieve a significant increase with 12%, compared to just 8.4% for the Pink Party in 2019.

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Greens still reasonably stable in EU elections
Lena Schilling achieved eleven percent at EU level despite the bad mood due to accusations of false accusations and lies in her private circle. "The Green electorate is very unsettled after the ongoing reporting about Schilling. Many of the Greens are currently switching to the political waiting room and staying there. Those who have already moved again are tending towards the KPÖ with Günther Hopfgartner, who has a respectable four percent. However, there may still be shifts between the Greens and the KPÖ," analyzes Haselmayer.