Consumption remains high

This is the situation with supply without Russian gas

Independence from imports should reduce the blackmailability of some European countries.

(Bild: PIXSELL / EXPA / picturedesk.com)

In Austria, over 90 percent of all natural gas imports still come from Russia, and consumption is still considered to be high. What happens in the event of a ban on imports of Russian natural gas into the EU?

Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, the EU has only been importing a quarter of the original volume from Russia. "Nevertheless, the country remains an exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe and still has some countries in Central and Eastern Europe under its control in terms of energy policy," warns a study by the economic research institute DIW.

"Gas demand could be covered by pipeline imports from other countries and LNG without expanding the infrastructure in almost all scenarios," promises the study, which was made available to Deutsche Presse-Agentur on Thursday. Supplies could also be secured in Central and Eastern European EU countries that are highly dependent on Russian natural gas, such as Austria and Hungary. "Security of supply therefore does not stand in the way of further EU sanctions against Russia," it continues. The study was based on models that assumed both a rapid and a slow decline in demand for natural gas.

(Bild: stock.adobe.com)

Over 90 percent of all gas imports in Austria still come from Russia
EU-wide, Russia currently still covers around 14 percent of natural gas demand. "But Germany and Europe would be able to manage without imports from Russia in the coming decades, even countries that are heavily dependent on Russian natural gas such as Austria and Hungary," explained author Franziska Holz. According to the Federal Ministry of Energy, 93% of gas imports in Austria came from Russia in March 2024, and as much as 98% in December 2023.

If the EU were to impose sanctions against Russian natural gas after all, the gap would be closed primarily via Norway and the USA, the study continues. "But countries such as Algeria, Qatar, Nigeria and Azerbaijan would also replace the loss of Russian natural gas - even if demand in the EU did not fall as quickly as planned."

Natural gas phase-out should reduce vulnerability to blackmail
The authors believe it is urgently necessary to distribute imports across more sources of supply. "All European countries have understood that they need to spread their demand across more natural gas sources than they used to." The import of LNG becomes more important in all scenarios, especially in a delayed decline in demand scenario, which assumes constantly high consumption until the early 2030s.

The European energy industry is heading towards a natural gas phase-out, explained Claudia Kemfert, Head of the DIW Energy Department. The rapid switch to renewable energies not only makes sense in terms of climate policy. "It also makes a significant contribution to reducing existing import dependencies and thus the supposed blackmailability of some European countries."