Explosive sabre-rattling

Taiwan surrounded, China already testing “occupation”

(Bild: AFP/I-Hwa CHENG)

The Chinese sabre-rattling around Taiwan is not only intensifying, the military is also making it unmistakably clear that the situation is not to be trifled with. The current exercises would test the "ability to seize power" - for example, to "occupy important areas" of Taiwan. The island has already been surrounded.

The situation around the island state threatens to become a powder keg once and for all. In addition to the large-scale military exercise, the situation is escalating verbally in particular. China, which is otherwise very diplomatic on the outside, even spoke of "shattered skulls" on Thursday.

Almost 50 fighter jets circle around the island of
The two-day exercises will test the "ability to jointly seize power, launch joint attacks and control key areas", said military spokesman Li Xi on Friday, according to state media. Meanwhile, the Taiwanese government announced that China had sent the largest number of fighter jets to the island republic to date as part of the two-day exercise.

In the past 24 hours, 49 aircraft were registered in the vicinity of the island, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense announced on Friday morning. According to the ministry, 35 of the aircraft flew over the median line in the strait between Taiwan and China and entered the Taiwanese air defense zone. In addition, 19 Chinese naval vessels and seven Chinese coast guard ships were spotted.

China sees peace in the region at risk
China had further inflamed tensions on Thursday with military exercises involving naval vessels and military aircraft as well as threats of bloodshed. This came just a few days after the inauguration of Taiwan's new president Lai Ching Te (William Lai). The former doctor is seen as a "dangerous separatist" who threatens peace in the region.

China is currently surrounding the island republic of Taiwan with dozens of ships and fighter planes.

(Bild: AFP/I-Hwa CHENG)

Taiwan's topography makes an attack extremely difficult - experts do not expect it to be worthwhile for China.

(Bild: AFP/Greg Baker)

Taiwan seceded from communist mainland China at the end of a civil war 75 years ago. Beijing regards the island, which has a population of 23 million, as a renegade province that should be reunited with the mainland, using military force if necessary.

Is the situation escalating into war?
Taiwan expert Gunter Schubert told "Ippen.media" that the threatening gestures towards Taiwan are "symbolic politics and to a certain extent a kind of ritual". For years, China has been sending fighter jets and warships into the vicinity of the island on an almost daily basis. Nevertheless, a serious attack is still considered unlikely.

"Nobody knows when and whether China actually wants to intervene militarily - the Chinese government itself may not know," Schubert continues. Like him, several experts doubt that China already has an attack plan in the drawer.

China's chances of success probably low
Just last year, the US think tank CSIS published an analysis with several possible attack scenarios and the conclusion: if the US and Japan are on Taiwan's side, China would probably lose a "conventional" attack.

However, the victory of the allies would come at a high price: "The United States and its allies would lose dozens of ships, hundreds of airplanes and tens of thousands of military personnel. Taiwan's economy would be devastated," say the CSIS analysts.