Russia's long arm

How the Kremlin is trying to disrupt the EU elections

Elections will be held in Austria on June 9.

(Bild: AP ( via APA) Austria Presse Agentur)

Shortly before the European elections, concerns about Russian influence are growing once again: there are cyberattacks on EU countries' institutions, pro-Russian internet platforms are said to be spreading propaganda in the EU and there is even talk of money being paid to European politicians. How great is the danger?

"The European Parliament elections at the beginning of June are an expected target for such attempts to influence elections," says Lea Frühwirth from the Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS) in Berlin on the subject of election interference.

Typical examples include discrediting parties and politicians or sowing distrust in the legitimacy of the electoral process. However, campaigns can also influence voters indirectly. Those who want to undermine trust in democratic institutions can also do so by suggesting that the population is not adequately protected.

Influence is a permanent condition
According to the expert, Russia does not only interfere in elections. Such campaigns are more of a kind of background noise, says Frühwirth. On certain occasions or in order to heat up polarizing debates, this increases once again.

The best example of this is the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. The East StratCom Task Force, which is part of the EU's diplomatic service, reports that disinformation cases targeting Ukraine account for more than 40 percent of all cases in its database.

According to the experts of the East StratCom Task Force, campaigns about the war in Ukraine aim, among other things, to undermine European support for helping the attacked country with financial, military and humanitarian aid.

Dangerous cyberattacks
However, Russian influence goes beyond disinformation campaigns. The Kremlin is repeatedly accused of being the mastermind behind cyber attacks. "There can be various objectives behind them, such as tapping into data, weakening critical infrastructure or a communication effect," explains researcher Frühwirth.

Attacks on critical infrastructure would disrupt specific processes, but are also intended to showcase the affected country and convey that the government is unable to protect its citizens.

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock clearly named Russia as the perpetrator of attacks on the German SPD and German companies in the logistics, armaments, aerospace and IT services sectors. "Russian state hackers have attacked Germany in cyberspace," said the Green politician in May. The German government holds a unit of the Russian military intelligence service - APT28 - responsible.

"Threat actor" Russia
Germany is not the only country in Russia's sights: according to the EU, other state institutions, agencies and facilities in the member states, including Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia and Sweden, have previously been attacked by the same "threat actor".

One particularly prominent example of possible Russian influence is the Voice of Europe platform, which is based in Prague. It is suspected of spreading pro-Russian propaganda in the EU and paying money to European politicians. Interviews with AfD politician Petr Bystron and his party colleague Maximilian Krah, among others, appeared on the portal.

Krah is the AfD's top EU candidate

(Bild: AFP/FREDERICK FLORIN)

The Czech newspaper "Denik N" reported at the beginning of April that money may have been involved in the Bystron case. The AfD member of parliament has repeatedly denied this. Krah also denies having accepted money from the Voice of Europe environment.

AfD man under investigation
As a result of this and other reports, the public prosecutor's office in Munich initiated so-called preliminary investigations in the Bystron case to examine whether there is an initial suspicion of criminal conduct involving bribery of members of parliament. According to dpa information, the investigations that have been initiated relate to the allegations in connection with Voice of Europe.

In the Voice of Europe case, a broadcasting ban was imposed in the EU in mid-May. In addition to the platform, three Russian media outlets were also banned throughout the EU. The fact that the broadcasting ban has now been decoupled from a planned 14th package of sanctions against Russia probably also has to do with concerns about interference ahead of the European elections.

Manipulation goes beyond election day
Researcher Frühwirth warns that attacks on the legitimacy of election results can also take place in the aftermath and cause lasting problems. "The end of the election campaign does not necessarily mean the end of attempts to influence elections."