IFDD head Haselmayer

“Farting and mumbling cuts the Greens in half”

Christoph Haselmayer in today's "Nachgefragt" talk

(Bild: krone.tv)

IFDD opinion researcher and political analyst Christoph Haselmayer and his Institute for Public Opinion Research and Data Analysis have once again asked the famous "Sunday question". If elections to the National Council were held next Sunday, the result would be as follows ...

"The FPÖ is the clear number one with 28 percent. The SPÖ and the ÖVP are neck and neck with 23 percent each. The NEOS would get eight percent and the Greens seven percent." For the Greens, who achieved just under 14% in the 2019 parliamentary elections, just 7% would be a huge drop. Haselmayer: "Talk of farting and mumbling cuts the Greens in half. They are now only as strong as Dominik Wlatzny, who would get seven percent with the beer party. The KPÖ is currently on three percent." In addition to the grumbling, the Greens are also noticing the headwind that is blowing against them as a small government partner. Instead, new protagonists such as Wlazny or rebel types are needed. 

Tripartite coalition completely unpopular
According to IFDD data, future tripartite coalitions in Austria would be a dead loss with the population. In any case, forming a government to gain a majority mandate will be a tough process. Haselmayer: "From 92 mandates you have a majority. But it makes sense to get 100, 101 or 102 mandates. Otherwise you are always vulnerable. That way, the alliances could block everything. Resolutions could also not be passed if someone is ill or goes to the toilet." With the desired coalition variants, however, you can also see that the population becomes more realistic the closer election day gets.

Karawanken bear votes green
The current data shows a similar picture for the EU elections on June 9. Haselmayer: "The FPÖ will be number one in the EU parliamentary elections for the first time. In our country it is in a range of 26 to 30 percent. The SPÖ is slightly ahead of the ÖVP in second place. The Greens are at ten percent in the EU elections. This means that the decline here is not as sharp as in the National Council elections. As a Carinthian, I can say that the Green voters would even vote for the Karawanken bear in the EU elections if only it was painted green."

Many Green voters are currently in the political waiting room when it comes to the EU. Or, according to the IFDD EU election forecast, they would go to the Communists or the SPÖ.