Fewer people in employment

EU faces population decline despite immigration

(Bild: stock.adobe.com)

The European Union (EU) is facing a significant population decline in the coming decades. Even with net immigration of 1.2 million people per year, the population could fall by 4.2% to 432.2 million by 2070.

Without net immigration - immigration minus emigration - the EU population would decline even more significantly: by a good 20 percent to 358.4 million in 2070. This forecast was published by the German Federal Statistical Office in Berlin on Monday. It is based on calculations by the EU statistics office Eurostat. On January 1, 2023, 451.4 million people were living in the EU.

With higher annual immigration - assuming an increase of 33 percent compared to the current level of 1.2 million people - growth could be expected. At 465.5 million, the population in 2070 would then be 3.1% higher than at present.

(Bild: APA/AFP/Odd ANDERSEN)

"There are clear differences between the EU countries," the statisticians emphasized. While Iceland, Malta, Luxembourg, Sweden and Ireland can expect significant population gains, the number of inhabitants would decrease, particularly in the Eastern and Southern European member states.

The population is ageing
Demographic change means that in the future, fewer and fewer people of working age will be facing an ever-increasing number of people of retirement age in the EU member states, the statistics office emphasized. The old-age dependency ratio is the ratio of people of retirement age (aged 65 and over) to 100 people of working age (20 to 64). According to the basic variant, this old-age dependency ratio will increase from the current 36 to 59 in 2070. Among the EU member states, Lithuania is likely to have the highest ratio at 73 - the lowest at 50 in Sweden, where there are still two people of working age for every person of retirement age.