The first analysis

Kickl wins, Babler fears and Nehammer breathes a sigh of relief

Commenting on the current political situation: "Krone" super-editor Rainer Nowak

(Bild: Reinhard Holl, Krone KREATIV)

Rainer Nowak, head of the "Krone" super department, analyzes the preliminary trend forecasts for the EU elections.

Welcome to election Sunday. The following lines are based on the so-called trend forecast, details may still change, a real projection or result will only be available after 11 pm. At this time, the polling stations in Italy will close and our southern neighbors will be enjoying a well-deserved aperitif.

In any case, today's election Sunday is a historic one for Austria and will produce a result the likes of which the second republic has never seen. (Neither has the first, of course.) For the first time, the Freedom Party is in first place in a nationwide election. They did not reach 30 percent, as some opponents had already predicted.

This is known as expectation management: on election Sunday, the political scene is told that the FPÖ will not take off as feared. 

Or to put it another way: what would have happened if Karo Edtstadler had agreed to support her party leader Karl Nehammer after all and become the lead candidate? Or what would have happened if the SPÖ had sent Vienna's hot potato city councillor Peter Hanke or the affable club leader Philipp Kucher into the ring? (The Greens may also ask themselves: Why did Infrastructure Minister Leonore Gewessler turn down the job after all?) Perhaps the FPÖ would not be in first place after all.

The alarm bells of the SPÖ should be ringing much louder
This election victory was foreseeable, the two European parties ÖVP and SPÖ had already resigned themselves to the FPÖ's march through, the voters smelled it and punished it. Alarm bells should be ringing for both parties; in less than four months' time, the National Council elections and the future government will be at stake. Those of the SPÖ should be ringing even louder, after all Andreas Babler is facing a veritable problem called the Beer Party, which is likely to cost the SPÖ (and the Greens) votes. He will also continue to be criticized internally by several federal states such as Burgenland, Lower Austria and Tyrol.

Half an election winner and a real one
In any case, Karl Nehammer can breathe a sigh of relief despite the loss of votes, as he was prevented from falling to the 20 percent mark, which means he can be sure of the loyalty of the provincial governors. He has succeeded in stabilizing the party after Sebastian Kurz and the allegations of corruption. With second place, he would be half an election winner who can be happy.

Back to the real election winner: Herbert Kickl is now the next top candidate who could achieve a nationwide victory and thus be in the running for the next government. No matter how many sleepless nights this causes Alexander Van der Bellen. In the coming weeks and months, Kickl will be judged on what he puts forward in terms of his program. Simply attacking the government will not be enough.

We have been waiting a long time for the FPÖ's economic program. There are repeated debates in political circles as to whether Kickl would possibly clear the way for a blue-black or even blue-red government and become the first President of the National Council. I think this is as good as impossible, Kickl will not back down.

Vilimsky and Kickl.

(Bild: APA/GEORG HOCHMUTH)

Yes, in 1999 it wasn't Susanne Riess or Jörg Haider who stood for election, but a certain Thomas Prinzhorn, who was first on the FPÖ list. After the election, Wolfgang Schüssel became chancellor, Riess-Passer vice-chancellor, Haider eternal Bärentaler. But the situation is not comparable: The FPÖ is probably ahead in the fall. Kickl will see this as his achievement and no one in the FPÖ will question it.

But Kickl's power is by no means unlimited: The big Viennese, the powerful Upper Austrians and the Salzburgers (both in state governments) are considered critical of Kickl. But they will not rebel against him. Why? Whoever wins elections also wins the party. And he wins, as was proven today.

Have a good rest of Sunday and a good start to the week.