Outlook for the NR election
FPÖ: Potential exhausted – or is there more to come?
Many political experts saw the defeat in the EU elections as a test run for the upcoming National Council elections in the fall. Seen in this light, the FPÖ passed this test with a school grade of 1. But where will the Freedom Party's journey take them? Can the blue party do better than the 25.7 percent it achieved on Sunday - or have they already exhausted their potential?
First place in the EU elections - the FPÖ came first in a nationwide election in Austria for the first time. Top candidate Harald Vilimsky thus took a vote for more national self-determination. The fear campaign of the competition had come to nothing.
It was a strong red-white-red signal. The stringent course has paid off. People see that we don't say one thing today and something different tomorrow, but always the same thing.
FPÖ-Spitzenkandidat Harald Vilimsky
Three more elections this year
This fall, there are still state elections in Styria and Vorarlberg as well as the National Council election as the highlight. In the latter, the FPÖ is consistently leading in all polls.
FPÖ: nationwide record of 27.5 percent
Nevertheless, first place is not set in stone, especially as there is a risk that the FPÖ may have already exhausted its protest voter potential on Sunday. It is possible that many blue voters will no longer vote for the Freedom Party in the fall.
Note: On Sunday, the FPÖ achieved 25.7 percent, its record result in a nationwide election is 27.5 percent (EU election 1996).
The results of the EU election in detail: You can see where the new strongholds are and how the votes were cast in Austria in the following graphic. You can switch between the provincial and municipal views.
There is great optimism in the House of Freedom
Vilimsky is not worried that voters might run away again in the coming months. "Quite the opposite. I am not afraid, but very, very hopeful that with the foundation we have now built and established, we can continue to expand this House of Freedom step by step. And that it is a constituency that is supported by critical and positive reform. We now want to bring this positive reform into the National Council elections," emphasized the blue EU top candidate on ORF on election night.
I have great hope that with the foundations we have now built and erected, we can continue to expand this liberal house step by step.
Harald Vilimsky
And he added: "I do believe that there is a lot of substance there and not just voters who have given us their vote at short notice and have said for themselves that they just want to voice their protest against the government. It may be that one or two people did that, but the vast majority have insane hopes for us."
Almost 70% of FPÖ voters also want to vote solid blue in the fall
Party leader Herbert Kickl "humbly" celebrated a "historic result" on Sunday and saw a "milestone" achieved. An election day survey for ATV/Puls24 probably gives the Freedom Party some hope. 69 percent of those who voted FPÖ in the EU elections are also certain to do so in the National Council elections. That is by far the best figure of all parties.
I am certain that the FPÖ will retain first place.
OGM-Chef Wolfgang Bachmayer
"Voters are flexible, never the end"
But: voters are "flexible, never the end", warned pollster Peter Hajek on Monday. In the past, for example, a DNA list would not have achieved three percent from a standing start. According to Hajek, the EU election was above all a "thought-provoking election". The starting situation in the fall is different, but a "similar result" is expected.
Experts also see the FPÖ as the favorite in the NR election
"The Freedom Party is certainly still the favorite due to the issues and the higher voter turnout in the National Council election," said political expert Thomas Hofer. However, due to the narrow gap to second and third place, "purely on a motivational level, more is possible again" for the ÖVP and SPÖ, Hofer added.
Higher voter turnout likely in the fall
"The chances of the Freedom Party retaining first place are given," said OGM leader Wolfgang Bachmayer. In the National Council elections, the FPÖ would even be in a better position than in the EU elections due to a presumably higher voter turnout. The FPÖ electorate "has never been oriented towards the EU election", explained Bachmayer. "I am sure that the FPÖ will hold first place," he emphasized with regard to autumn.
FPÖ won most votes from ÖVP and non-voters
Incidentally, the FPÖ won most of its new votes from the ÖVP camp on Sunday: of the 1.3 million turquoise voters from 2019, around 221,000 opted for blue this time. The FPÖ also scored points among non-voters, from whom it gained around 100,000 votes, according to the voter flow analysis by ORF/FORESIGHT. And 76% of blue voters in 2019 once again voted for the FPÖ - the best result of all parties.
This article has been automatically translated,
read the original article here.
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