Results analyzed
Karas on the shift to the right in the EU: “Less pessimistic”
The evening of the 2024 EU elections was exciting. In Austria, the FPÖ came first in a nationwide election for the first time, achieving 25.5 percent (plus 8.3) and six seats (previously three) according to the results including the electoral map forecast. The results were analyzed at the press conference in the House of the European Union on Monday.
The first Vice-President of the European Parliament, Othmar Karas, emphasized that despite the gains made by right-wing parties, he was "less pessimistic" about the situation. And: "The pro-European groups of Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens have a clear majority", said Karas. He went on to emphasize: "If the center acts as one, nobody has to look to the left or right. Ursula von der Leyen has a clear majority for herself as a person and her program."
Voter behavior and country-specific developments
Paul Schmidt, Secretary General of the Austrian Association for European Politics,highlighted the one percentage point increase in voter turnout. He also mentioned two interesting developments: "We have seen a strong anti-government vote in some countries, such as Austria, France, Hungary and Germany. It was different in Poland and Italy, where the governing parties prevailed. The poor performance of the Lega Nord in Italy was particularly interesting."
The voting motives in 2024 were clearer than in 2019: the ÖVP and SPÖ scored points with core voters, the FPÖ benefited from protest voters, while 60% of Green voters cited substantive positions as their main motive. The NEOS sent out a pro-European signal.
Young voters and their late decision
Political scientist Karin Praprotnik paid particular attention to the voting behavior of young people under the age of 30, who often make their decision shortly before the election. "Every second young voter said that they only made their decision after the election campaign," said Praprotnik. Issues such as immigration, security, war as well as environmental and climate protection were equally relevant for this age group.
Outlook for the National Council elections
Since the early National Council elections in 2019, the National Council and European elections have been held in the same year. "The European elections are often influenced by national elections. In 2019, the results were close to each other, with the biggest difference being around three percentage points for the ÖVP," explained Praprotnik. The upcoming election campaign for the National Council elections will bring further clarity.
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