A colorful parliament

National Council elections in 100 days: What’s in store for the fall

In exactly 100 days, the seats in the National Council will be filled. The House could become much more colorful.

(Bild: APA/EVA MANHART)

In 100 days' time, the highlight of this year's super election year will take place: On September 29 - exactly five years after the last ballot - the members of the National Council will be newly elected. The House of Representatives could then become much more colorful and the formation of a government much more difficult.

The role of favorite is clear: for 19 months now, the FPÖ has been stable in first place in the election polls, reaching an average of 27% in the two polls conducted so far in June according to APA-Wahltrend. Behind them, the SPÖ and ÖVP are in a tight race for second place, with both currently at 22.5 percent. In the individual polls, however, the SPÖ has always been slightly ahead for months.

European elections as a yardstick?
The Freedom Party became the strongest party in a nationwide ballot for the first time in the EU elections just under two weeks ago. Contrary to predictions, the People's Party and the Social Democrats were only just behind in what was seen as a test vote. The ÖVP is therefore conjuring up a duel between party leader Karl Nehammer and FPÖ chairman Herbert Kickl, while the SPÖ under Andreas Babler sees a three-way fight in the hot autumn.

Behind these three parties, the NEOS are currently quite stable in fourth place with an average of nine percent, followed by the Greens with an average of 8.2 percent.

Governing through despite dispute
Based on the presumed election result alone, it is unlikely that there will be a new edition of the turquoise-green government coalition after the National Council elections. In terms of atmosphere, the desire on both sides to continue working together seems limited, especially since the recent dispute over the unilateral action of Green Environment Minister Leonore Gewessler at EU level. What is remarkable, however, is that the federal government remained in office for the full five-year legislative period. This has only happened once before: from 2008 to 2013 under Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ).

After the election, the National Council could become much more diverse, with the number of parliamentary groups increasing from the current five to six or even more. This would also make it much more difficult to form a government. Possible three-party coalitions are already being mooted - something that has never been seen before at federal level in Austria.

Election trend according to polls

• The APA election trend shows the average poll results of the parties over the last five weeks.
• More recent polls are weighted more heavily than older ones.

Beer party with good chances
Pollsters believe that the KPÖ and the Beer Party have the best chances of winning seats. The latter has clearly exceeded the four percent threshold in the polls since January; in the June polls, Dominik Wlazny's alias Marco Pogo's party achieved a monthly average of 6.5 percent. It is followed by the KPÖ, which, with an average of 2.5 percent in current polls, would not make it in, but would achieve a significantly better result than in previous elections.

In order to even be able to run on September 29, the parties not yet represented in the National Council must collect declarations of support. The starting signal for this will be given on July 9. In order to be on the ballot paper throughout Austria, they must get at least 2,600 eligible voters - correctly distributed across the provinces - to sign at the municipal office or magistrate by August 2. 

Small parties push for ballot papers
Other small parties will also be collecting declarations of support. A list of former Green Party leader Madeleine Petrovic wants to be on the ballot paper, as do lesser-known small parties, including the "SERVUS Party", "Der Wandel", "Die Gelben", the "Unabhängigen Österreichs (DUO)" and the "Demokratische Alternative".

On July 9, the counter for the statutory upper limit for election campaign costs also begins to run for all parties. In the two and a half months up to election day, the parties are each allowed to spend a maximum of 8.66 million euros - significantly more than the seven million in the last National Council election in 2019 due to inflation adjustments.

Due to the summer vacation period, the intensive election campaign will not take place until September. The events and speeches so far in the super election year suggest it: The election campaign will be brutal.