Threat of open war

Israel to Hezbollah: Bombs Lebanon “in the Stone Age”

The south of Lebanon is controlled by the terrorist militia.

(Bild: AFP)

The conflict between Israel and the militant Hezbollah has recently intensified. There is a threat of open war, which would further escalate the situation in the Middle East. The Israeli military is currently preparing for an offensive in Lebanon - including some hefty announcements.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has been in the USA for days in order to define the fronts with Israel's most important ally. Gallant insists that his government prefers a diplomatic solution on the Israeli-Lebanese border. In line with the USA.

Israel threatens "Stone Age"
Nevertheless, he warned during his visit to Washington that Israel's military is capable of taking Lebanon "back to the Stone Age" in a war with the militant Hezbollah. The terrorist militia controls large parts of Lebanon, especially the south and north-east. Hezbollah is therefore often referred to as a "state within a state".

Since the beginning of the Gaza war more than eight months ago, there have been almost daily clashes with fighters from the Shia militia, which is armed and financed by Iran, in the border area between Lebanon and Israel. Fighting has recently intensified on both sides. 

Gallant relies on the USA
Before his departure to the USA, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant had already confirmed that his country was "prepared for any operation that may be necessary, in the Gaza Strip, in Lebanon and in other areas".

Yoav Gallant with his counterpart from the USA Lloyd Austin

(Bild: AP ( via APA) Austria Presse Agentur)

The US broadcaster CNN had reported that senior US representatives had assured members of an Israeli delegation that the US would give Israel its full backing should a major war with Hezbollah break out.

Israel prepares for deployment
The intensification of the fighting has been accompanied by an escalation of words in recent days. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz threatened Hezbollah with destruction, after which the army approved an operational plan for Lebanon.

"This was a message to all players: we have reached the end of our patience and if there is no agreement we can live with, this is our next step," explained Nitzan Nuriel, the former head of Israel's counter-terrorism staff unit, recently.

The big arms build-up since 2006
The last war between Israel and Hezbollah began in July 2006. Within 34 days, almost 1,400 people were killed, including 1,200 on the Lebanese side, most of them civilians. Nuriel was involved in the war as an army commander.

Today, an operation would probably be even more difficult. The terrorist militia has rearmed enormously. Hezbollah is the only group in Lebanon that kept its weapons after the civil war from 1975 to 1990. Since the war with Israel in 2006, the militia has greatly expanded the "size and quality of its arsenal", according to expert Dina Arakji from the consultancy Control Risks.

More than 100,000 rockets and soldiers
According to unofficial estimates, the number of 15,000 rockets at the time has increased tenfold in recent years. Hezbollah has mainly acquired modern weapons, especially precision-guided missiles. In the event of a war, Israel would also have to be prepared for attacks from the ground, from the air and from the water.

Hezbollah is supported by Iran and possesses modern weapons.

(Bild: AP ( via APA) Austria Presse Agentur)

According to its own statements, the Hezbollah militia has "far more" than 100,000 fighters at its disposal. A figure that Middle East experts consider credible. However, there are differing assessments of their operational readiness and level of training.

Tunnels based on the Hamas model
What is certain, however, is that Hezbollah has access to a network of tunnels based on the Hamas model. The extensive network in southern Lebanon is said to extend as far as the Bekaa Valley near the border with Syria. Hezbollah is "prepared for a war of attrition based on the same model as Hamas", said retired Lebanese army general Khalil Helou. "Their leaders will be unreachable by Israeli aircraft because they are underground."

Iran's terrorist militia

• Hezbollah is Tehran's most loyal militant ally.
• It was founded in the 1980s to fight Israeli troops in Lebanon.
• It has a large arsenal of weapons and highly qualified fighters who fought for years in Syria against Sunni Islamists.
• Hezbollah is the most powerful group in Lebanon, whose economy is in free fall.

The USA has recently left no doubt as to how it would feel about an open war. According to reports, US officials are pushing for a "diplomatic solution". According to US Chief of Staff Charles Quinton Brown, an Israeli offensive in Lebanon could increase the risk of a broader conflict involving Iran. 

And: "Hezbollah has greater capabilities than Hamas." Analysts doubt whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will take this advice to heart.