Bloody invasion

Ukraine is shrinking: huge consequences loom

Children are the poorest victims of the Russian war of aggression. They grow up surrounded by rubble and broken glass. In constant fear that another missile will hit.

(Bild: AP ( via APA) Austria Presse Agentur/EVGENIY MALOLETKA)

The Russian invasion and the displacement of millions of people is also having a massive impact on the population structure - there is a threat of a decline of almost a third.

Since the invasion by Putin's troops in February 2022, one of the largest population shifts in decades has taken place. By the middle of last year alone, 5.9 million people - mostly women - had fled Ukraine. But a further 5.1 million were also displaced within the country. All in all, the bloody invasion has uprooted eleven million Ukrainians.

Flight movement leads to low birth rate
But that's not all. According to studies led by the Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) in Vienna, there are also huge long-term consequences. "The war in Ukraine has probably triggered the largest migration flow in Europe since the expulsion of Germans from many countries after the Second World War," says Tomáš Sobotka from the Institute of Demography at the Austrian Academy of Sciences.

(Bild: www.viennareport.at/(c) www.VIENNAREPORT.at)

At the same time, the scientist warns of a "lasting negative impact on the population structure and dynamics of Ukraine". In other words, this flight movement has dramatically influenced the long-term trend of population decline and the low birth rate.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine led to the largest population shift in Europe since the Second World War.

Tomáš Sobotka, stellvertretender Direktor des Instituts für Demografie in Wien

Demographer Anna Goujon has calculated the development up to 2052. A long war and a low return rate are the most pessimistic scenario. This is because the Ukrainian population would then shrink by 31 percent.

Proportion of Ukrainians in our country: 1.1 percent of the total population
But even in the most optimistic forecast - if the country recovers quickly - the scientists assume a population decline of 21 percent. In Austria, by the way, Ukrainian citizens make up 1.1 percent of the total population.