Corona in wastewater

Wave is rising, expert urgently advises vaccination

The expert Ulrich Elling urgently advises everyone aged twelve and over to refresh their coronavirus vaccination status. He is apparently expecting an even more severe wave.

(Bild: APA/EVA MANHART, stock.adobe.com, Krone KREATIV)

Molecular biologist Ulrich Elling recommends not waiting until winter to boost vaccinations in view of the significant rise in coronavirus wastewater levels in recent weeks.

This is because the increase has occurred one to two months earlier than last summer, he says in a recent APA interview. This means that an expected sharp increase in cases (as occurred last year in late fall and especially in November/December) could occur earlier.

Increase as early as June
In 2023, an initially slow increase in wastewater data at a comparatively low level was only recorded from around August.

This year, after the extremely high winter wave and a very quiet spring, Covid wastewater values rose significantly in June and now July. The number of cases is also currently already at a significantly higher level than in August of the previous year, as the geneticist, who most recently worked at the Institute of Molecular Biotechnology (IMBA) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), recalled.

Corona wastewater levels are increasing all the time.

(Bild: APA/dpa/Stephanie Pilick)

"If you can already see that there is such potential, you have to assume that the wave will come sooner than last year." That's why you have to start vaccinating early: "As the vaccination takes a few weeks to take effect, I don't think it's a good idea to vaccinate at the same time as the flu," says Elling, noting that the flu season starts much later.

Poor vaccination coverage
He also pointed out that there was a poor vaccination coverage rate in Austria last year - and he sees no signs that politicians are making efforts to counteract this. Even with a view to the national elections in the fall, it can be assumed that hardly anyone will take the issue of vaccination into their own hands, Elling fears.

"We should have set this up by now," says the molecular biologist, explaining the need for a vaccination campaign. The supply of Covid vaccinations in private practices has also worked poorly. Austria has ordered more than one million vaccine doses this year and recommends vaccination for everyone aged twelve and over, especially the over-60 age group. This would require appropriate logistics in terms of communication and administration. It would therefore also be necessary to consider how to organize this better this year. The Ministry of Health recently stated that the vaccinations should be administered in private practice (by doctors) as before.

Ulrich Elling warns that the coronavirus will soon be back with a vengeance.

(Bild: APA/EVA MANHART)

New variant KP.3
Elling believes that the reasons for the early increase in the number of Covid cases are that the population's immunity has waned - partly due to the low vaccination rate, but also due to the fact that the peak of the last wave (December 2023) was more than six months ago. In 2023, on the other hand, there was also a spring wave and the population's immunity waned accordingly later. According to Elling, a lot of "fuel" has already accumulated, in the sense that immunity has been reduced. A "high infection potential" seems to have accumulated.

As the vaccination takes a few weeks to take effect, I don't think it's a good idea to vaccinate together with the flu.

Experte Ulrich Elling

However, the expert also referred to the new variants, which have a growth advantage over the XBB and JN.1 variants that predominate in winter. After the so-called FLiRT variants (KP.1.1, KP.2), the JN.1 daughter variant KP.3 (and its daughter variants) (so-called FLuQE variants, which have a further growth advantage over FLiRT) is currently gaining ground internationally and also in Austria. According to Elling, it is possible that a high plateau of infections could occur as early as late summer, meaning that the winter wave will not peak as high as last December - but this is highly speculative and uncertain.

Only Pfizer available
For the time being, the vaccine ordered by the Ministry of Health is exclusively that of the manufacturer Biontech-Pfizer (Comirnaty Omicron JN.1), which is tailored to the JN.1 variant.

However, the US FDA has now advised manufacturers to adapt the vaccines to the KP.2 virus strain if possible. Whether such an adapted vaccine will be available in Europe or Austria cannot be predicted at present.

In addition to the mRNA vaccine from Biontech, no other vaccine has been ordered by Austria to date.