"Krone" poll

Hofer: “Massive change in the political culture”

Karl Nehammer is catching up with Herbert Kickl in the chancellor duel.

(Bild: Harald Dostal, Uta Wiedergut, Krone KREATIV)

New poll two months before the National Council elections: For the first time, seven parties could enter the House of Representatives. The FPÖ could end up in first place, while anything is possible for the ÖVP - from first to third place.

63 days to go until the National Council elections. The countdown to the exciting election on September 29 is on. What does the situation look like two months before the national election? Who is catching up and who is slipping? The opinion research institute Unique Research conducted the Sunday poll on behalf of "Krone".

Nothing has changed at the top. The FPÖ is still in first place with 28%, followed by the ÖVP with 23% and the Social Democrats with 20%. "The new poll results show that the SPÖ has a massive mobilization problem. This was already evident in the EU elections and is now manifesting itself - even though it is currently in opposition," says political scientist Thomas Hofer.

In the "Krone" Sunday poll, the FPÖ is ahead of the ÖVP and SPÖ.

(Bild: Krone KREATIV/Peter Tomschi (2), Florian Schrötter, Reinhard Holl (2), Martin Jöchl, Christian Jauschowetz)

Nehammer and Kickl in the chancellor duel
Nehammer is catching up with Kickl in the chancellor duel, but an interesting shift can currently be observed. In December 2023, FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl was still at 30 percent. SPÖ leader Andreas Babler was in second place with 24.3% and the ÖVP was third with 20%.

A few weeks before the hot phase of the election campaign begins, the FPÖ slips slightly in the polls, the ÖVP rises and the SPÖ slips below the worst election result in history with 21.2 percent. This leaves Karl Nehammer and Kickl in the chancellor duel.

Taking into account the fluctuation margin of plus/minus 3.1 percent in the poll, anything is possible for the ÖVP in the election campaign - from first to third place. "The ÖVP still has a long way to go to catch up with the FPÖ. But the more the chancellor duel comes down to Kickl versus Nehammer, the more the ÖVP can hope for strategically-minded voters who want to prevent Kickl," says Hofer.

The ÖVP still has a long way to go to catch up with the FPÖ. But the more the chancellor duel comes down to Kickl versus Nehammer, the more the ÖVP can hope for strategically-minded voters who want to prevent Kickl.

Politikexperte Thomas Hofer

Seven parties in the National Council?
It could also turn out that seven parties will enter the National Council for the first time. "That means a massive change in political culture. We are heading towards Scandinavian conditions. Constitutional majorities, where two-thirds of the votes are needed, will become more difficult."