Military expert:

Trump victory would put Europeans under pressure

The Ukrainians could lose their biggest supporter, the USA

(Bild: APA/AFP/Roman PILIPEY)

A victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential elections in November would put Europe under political and military pressure. The Americans are Ukraine's biggest supporters. If Trump makes good on his announcement and stops all aid for Ukraine, Europe would face major problems, said military expert Brigadier Berthold Sandtner, Head of the Institute for Higher Military Leadership at the National Defense Academy, in an interview with "Krone".

"We saw what happens when US support fails when Congress blocked US military aid a few months ago. The Ukrainians came under massive pressure on the battlefield as a result. The defense industry in Europe, which is only just starting to grow again, would not be able to compensate for a complete loss of American aid," said Sandtner.

Brigadier Sandtner recently became head of the Institute for Higher Military Leadership at the National Defense Academy

(Bild: krone.tv)

Ukraine threatened with further territorial losses
"A lack of, or at least significantly reduced, military support from the USA would very likely result in territorial losses for Ukraine and, even more than now, Ukraine's critical infrastructure would be relatively defenceless against Russian air strikes. This would be a massive setback for Ukraine, coupled with other problems such as war-weariness and difficulties in recruiting soldiers," says the military expert.

Europe must rearm massively
In order to reduce its dependence on arms supplies, Ukraine is paying a lot of attention to building up its own arms industry, but this industry and the energy supply it requires are also the primary targets of Russian air strikes. The arms industry is also being ramped up in Europe. For example, attempts are being made to increase the production capacity of artillery shells from a few hundred thousand to a million or more per year. The challenge in Europe, however, is that many countries are rearming at the same time.

War also puts Ukraine under massive financial pressure
"The demand for armaments is enormous. You only have to look at Austria. In our defense budget, the funds for investments have multiplied and this is also the case in many other European countries. One of the consequences of this is that the price of military equipment has risen well above the level of inflation in recent years." Ukraine is now heavily indebted as a result of the war, spending half of its government spending on the military, compared to a third in Russia. The government in Kiev recently announced that it intends to increase the military tax on income from 1.5 percent to five percent.

Armaments are being built up across Europe

(Bild: Bundesheer/Rainer Zisser)

"There is currently a threefold dilemma for Ukrainians on the front line," says Sandtner. In the middle of the front, i.e. in the Donbass, the Russians are repeatedly succeeding in gaining ground, partly because the Ukrainians have had to withdraw reserves from this region to the north in order to fend off a new Russian offensive in the Kharkiv area. The north has thus become a problem again and in the south, for example along the Dnieper River, the Ukrainians have also recently had to retreat in places.

The front line has not changed significantly
The bottom line, however, is that the frontline has remained largely unchanged since the fall of 2022, following the successful Ukrainian offensives in the Kharkiv area in the north and Kherson in the south. The widely announced Ukrainian counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 only resulted in very minor shifts in the course of the front in the south. Part of it has already been recaptured by the Russians. "In summary, it can be said that neither side has managed to achieve a truly decisive breakthrough since November 2022," says Sandtner.

In summary, it can be said that neither side has been able to achieve a truly decisive breakthrough since November 2022.

Brigadier Sandtner

Selensky asks NATO to intervene directly
In order to counter the constant threat of Russian aerial warfare, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently called on NATO to shoot down Russian missiles and drones directly over Ukraine at one of the meetings of the European political community in the UK, as the USA did, for example, during the Iranian air attack on Israel with over 300 missiles and drones in April this year. However, NATO has so far always ruled out direct intervention in order to avoid becoming a party to the war itself. However, the red lines have shifted further and further in the course of almost two and a half years of war. Almost 100 F-16 aircraft will soon be delivered. This was unthinkable at the beginning of the war.