Meteorologist explains:

Why severe weather forecasts are so difficult

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06.08.2024 06:00

Extreme weather conditions with hail, storms and heavy rainfall are on the rise in Styria, which means that the demands on meteorologists are also increasing. But how do the weather professionals deal with this? The "Krone" was a guest at Geosphere.

What will the weather be like? People have wanted to know for thousands of years. Nothing is so hotly debated. And hardly any other topic is better suited to starting a conversation. But what makes it so fascinating? "If you don't know what to talk about, you start a conversation about the weather," smiles meteorologist Alexander Podesser from the Geosphere weather service (formerly the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics) in Graz. "Everyone is their own expert. And everyone is also dependent on it in some way."

Many people who depend on the weather for their daily work are among Geosphere's customers and use the (chargeable) number for short-term weather updates. Whether farmers who want to mow their fields, fruit and wine growers because of frosty nights, people from the energy industry or even Maxi from next door who is planning a barbecue.

In the morning, the various weather models are studied and an initial forecast is drawn up, as here by meteorologist Christian Pehsl. (Bild: Jauschowetz Christian)
In the morning, the various weather models are studied and an initial forecast is drawn up, as here by meteorologist Christian Pehsl.

Local forecasts are difficult to make
However, the big problem with the weather models used by meteorologists is that local forecasts are so difficult to make, especially when it comes to thunderstorms with storms and heavy rain. "High-performance computers are not enough. You have to imagine it like a pot of water on the stove. And then you have to guess where the first bubble will rise."

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The potential for severe weather has increased. And with it the demand on us to become better and better. But there are also limits to what meteorologists can do.

Alexander Podesser: Modernste Technik garantiert eine hohe Trefferquote bei Vorhersagen (Bild: Christian Jauschowetz)

Meteorologe Alexander Podesser

Predicting exactly where the first thunderstorm will occur is just as difficult. This is because thunderstorms can suddenly move in a different direction, intensify or weaken. What's more, in Styria in particular, thunderstorms occur at very short notice due to the location. "A reliable forecast is often only possible a quarter of an hour in advance," regrets Alexander Podesser. The same also applies to weather apps.

"Pressure on meteorologists is increasing"
However, it is an established fact that the potential for severe weather in Styria has risen sharply in recent years due to climate change ("however it comes about"). And this also increases the pressure on meteorologists. "Of course we want to warn people about severe weather in good time." After all, the potential damage is often very high and the sums insured are enormous.

 "It makes you feel guilty. Because none of us go home and don't care anymore. But even us meteorologists have our limits."

This article has been automatically translated,
read the original article here.

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