Alarm in Ukraine:
Population could shrink by 31% by 2025!
Ukraine has recorded a drastic drop in birth rates since the start of the Russian war of aggression in February 2022. According to forecasts, the population could shrink by as much as 31% by 2052.
In the first half of 2024, three times more people died than were born in Ukraine, the Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform reported on Monday, citing the online service Opendatabot and the Ministry of Justice.
War as the main reason
The ongoing war against Russia is the main reason for this. In the first six months of 2024, there were 87,655 births and 250,872 deaths in the country, according to data from the Ministry of Justice.
In the same period, 132,595 children were born in 2021. However, 349,041 people died in Ukraine in 2021, but this was due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Low birth rates in frontline regions
Most children, namely 9695, were born in the capital Kiev in 2024. This was followed by the regions of Lviv with 7923 and Dnipropetrovsk with 6,962 births. Births are very low in the frontline regions - 221 children in the Kherson region and 702 in the Donetsk region. Most people died in the regions of Dnipropetrovsk (26,374), Kharkiv (17,999) and Kiev (17,449).
The population forecast of the "European Demographic Data Sheet" shows that the war against Russia has triggered the largest migration flow in Europe since the Second World War.
Ukraine has been struggling with decline since independence
However, Ukraine has been struggling with a declining population since its independence in 1991. This is due to low birth rates, a high mortality rate and high emigration rates. With all these factors, the population of Ukraine could shrink by 21 or even 31 percent by 2052, depending on how optimistic or pessimistic the scenarios for the war and its end are, according to forecasts by the "European Demographic Data Sheet".
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