Extent still unclear
Ukraine attacks Russia on a massive scale: many dead
In its war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia is facing the heaviest counterattacks by Kiev on its own territory to date. Not only in the Kursk region is there a state of emergency amid ongoing fighting between Russian and Ukrainian soldiers. There are many casualties. Ukraine is also attacking Russia with drone strikes: authorities are reporting explosions, destruction and many casualties.
Ukraine, which has recently been on the defensive in its own country, now wants to take the war to Russia to a greater extent in order to put itself in a better position for possible negotiations.
What is Ukraine aiming to achieve with its attacks on Russia?
"Ukraine's aim is to seize the initiative through an element of surprise and to dominate the information space. Ukraine has achieved these tactical goals," military expert Nico Lange told the German Press Agency. Whether further operational goals can be achieved in the Kursk region is currently unclear. "Ukraine has also succeeded in forcing Russian units to move in the direction of Kursk, making them very vulnerable on the march," explained Lange, who works for the Munich Security Conference and was previously Chief of Staff at the German Ministry of Defense. Ukraine has inflicted heavy losses on Russian units in ambushes along this route.
The aim could be to create a protective zone close to the border in order to minimize the shelling of its own territory by the Russian enemy, as the Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fessenko, who is close to the president, suggests on Facebook. In military terms, Ukraine could also tie up Russian forces and relieve other sections of the front, such as near Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region or on the front near Donetsk, which is under pressure.
However, according to Fessenko, it is also about proving something to the allies: "The Ukrainian advance on the Kursk region is also a demonstration to the Americans that there is no need to fear attacks on Russian territory." They could therefore also give clearance for the use of their weapons on Russian soil.
What are the prospects of success for the advance in Kursk?
Experts from the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write that Ukrainian soldiers have advanced up to 35 kilometers beyond their own border, but without having the entire area under control. According to other military experts, the Ukrainian troops will hardly be able to establish themselves permanently in a larger area due to the limited deployment of a few hundred men with light armored technology.
Even advances towards the Kursk nuclear power plant near Kurchatov, just under sixty kilometers from the border, are unlikely with supplies constantly under threat from Russian air and artillery attacks. In addition, the Ukrainian army urgently needs combat-ready, motivated soldiers, tank technology and artillery on other sections of the front, as many observers, especially Ukrainian ones, have critically noted.
A heavy drone attack shakes the Russian town of Shebekino:
The further career of army commander-in-chief Olexander Syrskyj is also tied to the success of the operation, the full extent of which is only likely to be revealed in the coming days, according to military journalist Mychajlo Schyrochow in Kiev. Syrskyi only took command in February and has recently come under increasing criticism due to the constant loss of territory in eastern Ukraine.
How is the West reacting?
In May, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and US President Joe Biden changed course on Ukraine policy and authorized the use of supplied weapons against targets in Russia. However, the German government had not issued an assessment of the Ukrainian move by Friday afternoon. The Chairman of the Defense Committee in the Bundestag, Marcus Faber (FDP), saw no problem in the event of German weapons being used. "With the handover to Ukraine, they are Ukrainian weapons. That applies to all material - including the Leopard 2," he told the Funke Mediengruppe. With the Russian attack on Ukraine, the territory of both states is a war zone and the use of the weapons is subject to the provisions of international law. Accordingly, Ukraine also has the right to attack the aggressor's territory in its defense campaign.
What does the counter-attack mean for Western support?
It seems impossible that the cross-border operation could turn the tide. And yet it is tying up Russian forces and possibly distracting attention from other theaters. For Ukraine, it is a staged success with an uncertain outcome, but for the leadership in Moscow it is certainly a humiliation. The West has always emphasized that it will support Ukraine in its decisions to defend itself against the war of aggression.
How is Russia reacting?
In the face of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks, Russian air defenses are now in constant use, including on the annexed Black Sea peninsula of Crimea. Due to the heavy fighting in the Kursk region, the Ministry of Defense is now massively reinforcing its troops there. The state of emergency has been upgraded to a state of national emergency.
At the same time, air strikes are being flown against the neighboring Sumy region, which Ukraine is using as a deployment zone for its advance. In addition to the fight against the attacks from the neighboring country, Moscow is also continuing its attacks in the annexed regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk and Luhansk. The Ministry of Defense in Moscow reports further combat successes there.
What does the advance mean for Russia's war of aggression?
Russia is under more pressure to act than it has been for a long time. Russian President Vladimir Putin started the war against Ukraine with the argument that he was fighting for the security and stability of his country because Moscow sees itself threatened by Kiev's planned accession to NATO, for example.
Once again, the war is primarily affecting the border regions. Many people there have lost their belongings and are horrified and disillusioned, as even representatives of the authorities admit. People are once again having to watch as Putin's war threatens their lives and the nuclear power is vulnerable despite the Kremlin's assurances.
Observers in Russia assume that the new problems may mobilize even more volunteers for the front. Recently, the regions and Putin had already significantly increased the monetary rewards for signing contracts for the war effort.
What does the situation mean for possible peace negotiations?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that the country was seeking negotiations for a just peace. His office advisor Mychajlo Podoljak said that successes in Kursk could strengthen the negotiating position. Moscow will only be more willing to talk if the price of the war is increased through "losses of people, war technology and territories of the Russian Federation", he said on Ukrainian television.
From the Russian point of view, the negotiations are moving even further away. The country is bracing itself for a very long conflict. The deputy head of the National Security Council, former President Dmitry Medvedev, said that Ukraine would now have to prepare itself for even more territorial losses - he named the regions of Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odessa and also Kiev.
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