Historic advance

How Ukraine embarrassed Russia in two phases

Drones played a decisive role in the invasion.

(Bild: AFP/Roman PILIPEY)

For the first time since the Second World War, a foreign state has conquered Russian territory. Ukrainian troops are likely to have successfully repeated two phases in particular during the daring operation in the Kursk region. However, the humiliation of the Kremlin could well backfire.

What has been happening in Russia since August 6 is absolutely historic. Western analysts, military bloggers and the Russian leadership have been taken completely by surprise - by a new kind of blitzkrieg. The plan was subject to the strictest secrecy. According to reports, the troops carrying out the mission were also briefed on the mission at very short notice. 

How did Ukraine proceed in Kursk?
During its offensive in the Russian border region of Kursk, the Ukrainian army had advanced by up to 800 square kilometers by Monday evening, according to an analysis by the AFP news agency. For comparison: that is roughly twice the size of Vienna.

For days, Ukrainians have been posting how they are hoisting Ukrainian flags in Russian towns and villages. On Google Maps, Zelenskyi's soldiers jokingly complain that Russian restaurants and supermarkets offer too little space for their tanks. Videos are circulating of Vladimir Putin's troops surrendering without a fight. Around 200,000 Russians are on the run.

It is an absolute disaster for the dictator in the Kremlin, who had always promised his countrymen and women that the "special operation" would not affect their lives. Now the question arises: how could this happen? The advance was apparently divided into two phases. 

Phase 1

Darkening the battlefield

The Kursk region was an easier target than other areas along the front in the east and south of Ukraine. There were fewer trenches for armored vehicles, fewer dragon's teeth and fewer manned fighting positions, experts are certain.

Russia also appeared to have laid fewer mines in the Kursk region than in the occupied Ukrainian territories. Although a concentration of Ukrainian troops shortly before the invasion was registered in Russia, it was completely misinterpreted, reports the New York Times. But most importantly, outdated Russian equipment provided the Ukrainians with a huge gateway.

In an initial phase, this gave Ukraine the opportunity to obscure the battlefield for the Russians. Russian reconnaissance drones were apparently brought down so that the commanders could no longer see what was going on. This temporary shadow was used to bring short-range jammers to the front.

Russian drones were useless
"They detected the main frequencies of our border radio networks and drone control frequencies and prepared powerful jammers that disrupted our communications," reports a Russian war blogger. It seems that Russian drones in this sector were not operating according to the latest standards.

Russian reconnaissance drones were taken out of the sky:

By concentrating enough jammers in the Kursk sector, Ukraine neutralized the Russian drones and allowed their tanks to cross open terrain without being destroyed.

Phase 2

Air dominance and destruction of supplies

After the Russian air dominance was neutralized, the Ukrainians covered the Russian sky with a dense network of drones. This allowed openings in trenches to be blown up. Drone pilots then penetrated with smaller and more maneuverable models and caused enormous damage.

Ukraine is said to control a gas hub in Sudscha. Austria is particularly dependent on this transport route:

After the drone blitz, Ukrainian infantry is said to have advanced to secure the area. The radio jammers were then brought forward and the whole process was repeated for the next stage of the advance. The HIMARS missile system - supplied by the USA - is also said to have been used to unerringly destroy Russian supply lines. This is suggested by pictures and videos on social networks.

Images of the destroyed convoy:

In them, a burnt-out Russian convoy can be seen near the city of Rylsk, around 30 kilometers inside Russian territory. This theory has not been confirmed; the Ukrainian leadership is adamantly silent on operational details.

How does Kiev justify the maneuver?
However, the reasons for the mission are stated: According to official statements, Ukraine does not want to permanently occupy the areas taken in Russian territory. The aim is to relieve the battered troops in the Donbass. In addition, Russian logistics are to be disrupted in order to prevent Moscow from deploying additional troops to the Donetsk combat zone in eastern Ukraine.

Self-defense is a priority, as Russia has repeatedly bombed Ukrainian cities from Kursk. According to Kiev, the use of Western weapons was therefore justified and agreements had not been broken. According to reports, even Ukraine's closest partners were not informed of the plans.

What is the threat to Ukraine now?
According to Colonel Markus Reisner, the daring operation serves the purpose of targeted information warfare. "The aim is to create a dynamic similar to that which took place in the Kharkiv area in the fall of 2022. At that time, the Russian soldiers thought they were being outflanked and fled in panic," explained the army officer when asked by the "Krone" newspaper.

Colonel Markus Reisner sees little chance of success.

(Bild: P. Huber)

However, such an approach only works in the first 72 hours of a surprise attack and this time window is now over. It can already be observed that Russian troops are "consolidating and reserves are constantly arriving".

If the Ukrainians' calculations do not work out in the coming days and weeks, they will be faced with the dilemma of having to supply an even longer front from now on.

Oberst Markus Reisner

Bild: Bundesheer

Ukrainian morale is high, but the risks now outweigh the rewards: "If you want to hold on to the space you have gained southwest of Kursk, you have to keep pushing in more forces and supply them with soldiers, equipment, weapons and ammunition." According to Reisner, these are resources that would be lost in the Donbass.

Operation Kursk could be a negative turning point
Political observers are also certain that Putin's embarrassment would call for a harsh response. A failure of the Ukrainian operation with long-term negative consequences could also lead to further support for voices critical of Ukraine.

In the worst-case scenario, the Ukrainian leadership could be branded as unreliable and arms deliveries could be cut back as a result. "The Kursk maneuver could herald the military end of Ukraine," military expert Gustav C. Gressel told "Der Spiegel" magazine.

According to media reports, Putin is "seething with rage".

(Bild: AP/Sputnik)

The Ukrainians are obviously hoping to force Putin back to the negotiating table by invading - and capturing - critical infrastructure. However, the head of the Kremlin has already thwarted this plan in his very own way.

Putin, of all people, said: "What kind of negotiations can we even talk about with people who indiscriminately attack civilians and civilian infrastructure or try to endanger nuclear power plants?"