Danger of war

Middle East: The calm before the firestorm

(Bild: APA/AP)

Iran and Israel are on the brink of war - which even the neighboring countries cannot avoid.

It still seems to be the proverbial calm before the storm. On Friday, negotiations continued in Qatar's capital Doha on a ceasefire in the Gaza war and the release of Jewish hostages held by the Islamist terrorist organization Hamas. There is little hope of a breakthrough.

However, both the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah and Iran have announced that they will not retaliate against Israel as long as the negotiations continue.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his Shiite militia are an important power factor in Lebanon and are supported by Iran.

(Bild: APA/AFP/IRAN PRESS)

Following the attacks on Hamas leader Ismael Hanyeh in the Iranian capital Tehran, presumably carried out by Israel, and the killing of a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in the middle of the Lebanese capital Beirut, both Tehran and Hezbollah announced retaliatory strikes.

This would lead to a conflagration in the Middle East. But how would Iran's and Israel's neighboring countries react to a war?

(Bild: Krone KREATIV)

Saudi Arabia is one of Iran's biggest rivals in the region, but has only recently re-established diplomatic relations with Tehran and is also getting closer to Israel. "Saudi Arabia has declared its armed neutrality as a precautionary measure in the event of a regional war," says renowned Middle East expert Reinhard Schulze from the University of Bern in an interview with "Krone".

Middle East battlefield in proxy war?
As Egypt, Jordan, the Emirates, South Yemen and Bahrain are Saudi Arabia's closest allies, they are likely to sign up to this neutrality. Whether this can be maintained is questionable. As long as this neutrality exists, however, it will be very difficult for Iran to operate militarily, Schulze believes, as only the airspace over southern Iraq, Syria and Lebanon would be open.

Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman is an important player in the region.

(Bild: APA/AFP/Saudi Royal Palace/BANDAR AL-JALOUD)

However, this could change quickly, as a US intervention would take place via the ten US bases - eight of which are in the Gulf - and eleven other military posts - five of which are in Iraq, Syria and Jordan and two in Saudi Arabia. Theoretically, Saudi Arabia would then also have to take action against US aircraft should they operate in its airspace.

"Finally, it is important to note that talks on a close partnership between Russia and Iran are currently taking place," says Schulze. "Should the US intervene in Iran, this could potentially lead to a conflict with Russia." And no one in the region wants to be the battleground for a proxy war.