"The coffee market is still in an extremely unstable situation, as the price of green coffee continues to show extreme fluctuations and an unprecedented upward trend. Green coffee currently costs 245 cents per pound, which is 66 percent more than last year and more than double the price of three years ago. This explains why the price of a cup of coffee that we drink in a café has risen by 15 percent in the last three years," says Cristina Scocchia, Managing Director of the Trieste-based roasting company Illycaffè, according to media reports.

An espresso is relatively cheap in Italy compared to other countries, costing between 1 euro and 1.50 euros. Due to the rising cost of green coffee, a cup of espresso could soon cost two euros, Scocchia predicted, according to media reports.

Extreme weather events affect production
There are many complex factors behind the rise in green coffee costs, and the area under coffee cultivation could halve globally by 2050, warned Scocchia. "We are currently experiencing extreme weather events, from torrential rains in Brazil to droughts in Vietnam, which are seriously affecting production," explained the manager.

It is not only the climate that is causing problems for the coffee market. The coffee supply chain is also under pressure due to logistical problems, such as the recent blockade of the Suez Canal, which has increased costs and extended delivery times. In addition, speculation on raw materials has further exacerbated the situation.

Production costs are increasing
Scocchia emphasized that production costs for Illycaffè have increased by 17 percent in the two-year period 2022/2023. However, the company has tried to limit the impact on end consumers. "At the moment, we have no plans to further increase the prices of our products to help our end customers. However, if the upward trend continues, we will have to reconsider this decision," Scocchia concluded.

Italians spend more than 8 billion euros a year on coffee, or around 392 euros per family. Coffee capsules generate an annual value of 595 million euros, while mocha coffee has a turnover of 640 million euros. The espresso business, which is drunk in cafés, accounts for 7 billion euros. The wave of inflation could affect Italians' coffee consumption, warned the consumer protection association Codacons.

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