Stable ahead, but ...

FPÖ already firmly in first place? Experts urge caution

Current polls show the FPÖ (party leader Herbert Kickl in the center of the picture) ahead of the ÖVP with Chancellor Karl Nehammer (left) and the SPÖ with leader Andreas Babler.

(Bild: APA/Eggenberger, APA/Fesl, APA/Scheriau, Krone KREATIV,)

Elections will be held in two weeks' time - and if the polls are anything to go by, the FPÖ's victory seems to be unassailable. Nevertheless, political scientists and pollsters are urging caution. 

In the APA election trend, which takes into account polls from the past five weeks and weights them according to topicality, the FPÖ is ahead of the ÖVP (24.4 percent) and the SPÖ (20.7 percent) with 27.5 percent. In the past week, five polls were included in the calculation.

Graphic: Poll trends for the 2024 National Council election

Only own SPÖ poll sees Social Democrats in second place
All of them saw the FPÖ in first place with 27 to 29% - up to four percentage points ahead of the second-placed ÖVP (22 to 26%). The SPÖ trailed behind with 20 to 21 percent. Only a survey commissioned by the SPÖ itself from IFES puts the Social Democrats ahead of the ÖVP with 23%.

I would be surprised if the FPÖ were not ahead. But polls don't protect us from surprises.

Politikwissenschaftler Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik, Universität Wien

"I would be surprised if the FPÖ is not ahead. But polls don't protect us from surprises," says political scientist Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik from the University of Vienna. He has calculated the reliability of election polls since 1995 and has come up with good results.

FPÖ was overrated in the 2024 EU election
The EU election recently showed that surprises are possible. The FPÖ won as expected - but by a surprisingly narrow margin. Instead of a clear lead, the FPÖ was only slightly ahead of the ÖVP with 25.4 to 24.5 percent. The polls of the last 30 days before the election had predicted a good two percentage points more for the blue party. The ÖVP, on the other hand, was more than two percentage points ahead of its expectations on election day.

Graphic: FPÖ gains and losses since 2019

Deviations are getting smaller and smaller
On average, the parties' results only deviated by 1.9 percentage points from the result 30 days before the election. Nevertheless, he would not assume that the FPÖ will definitely be in first place on election night.

Will ÖVP voters decide so late again?
Christoph Hofinger from the Foresight Institute also points this out. "The Freedom Party's lead over the ÖVP has been overestimated by 4.3 percentage points." Hofinger would not say that the polling institutes made a mistake. It is possible, for example, that many voters opted for the ÖVP at a late stage. But, according to Hofinger, if this is also the case in the National Council elections, "then it will be exciting".

Graphic: Gains and losses for the ÖVP since 2019

In fact, the FPÖ is currently a good three percentage points ahead of the ÖVP in the APA election trend. If the turnaround in the EU elections is repeated in September, the FPÖ would have to fear for first place.

"No indications of this"
However, OGM head Wolfgang Bachmayer currently sees "no evidence of this". His institute also shows an upward trend for the ÖVP since the EU elections, but also a stable lead for the FPÖ. According to Bachmayer, the ÖVP has been able to make good use of its comparatively strong performance in the European elections - according to the motto "mood brings votes".

And the media are naturally also interested in a duel for the lead: "The best headline is a neck-and-neck race." Ultimately, however, the FPÖ's mobilization will probably work better in the National Council elections than in the European elections, which are less important for its electorate.

ÖVP stronger in the 2019 national elections than in the polls
There have always been major discrepancies between polls and election results in recent years. In 2019, for example, the ÖVP was more than three percentage points above the polls, while the FPÖ was almost four percentage points weaker.

On the other hand, the pollsters managed a precision landing for the SPÖ in 2019. In 2017, the SPÖ was stronger than in the polls, while the ÖVP was weaker. 2013 was a particularly good year for the institutes: the polls predicted the results of the SPÖ, ÖVP and FPÖ almost exactly.