Election trend shows:

FPÖ still in first place, but lead is shrinking

(Bild: Roland Schlager)

In a week's time, Austria will elect a new National Council. According to the latest APA election trend, the FPÖ can still count on first place. However, the latest surveys indicate that the blue party's lead over the ÖVP is shrinking. In addition to turquoise-blue, a majority for another two-party coalition (ÖVP-SPÖ) could also be possible. 

In the APA election trend, which takes into account polls from the past five weeks and weights them according to topicality, the FPÖ has 27.2 percent (previous week: 27.5 percent), ahead of the ÖVP with 24.7 percent (24.4 percent) and the SPÖ with 20.6 percent (20.7 percent). The NEOS held on to 9.8 percent and remained ahead of the Greens (8.4 percent).

Gap between FPÖ and ÖVP decreasing
Since Monday a week ago, four more polls have been included in the calculation. All of them saw the FPÖ in first place with 26 to 27 percent - but now just ahead of the ÖVP, which came in at 25 percent in all of these surveys. In the previous week's polls, the People's Party was in some cases worse (between 22 and 26 percent), the FPÖ slightly better (27 to 28 percent). The SPÖ continues to hold third place - but with a slight gap at 20 to 21 percent.

Small lists likely to miss out on National Council
According to the polls, the election is likely to be rather difficult for the smaller lists. Even the Beer Party, which experts had long predicted would easily clear the four percent hurdle to enter the National Council, has now been below this level for some time: the party is polling at 3.8 percent, with the KPÖ behind it at three percent. In all four polls since last Monday, BIER has been polling at just three percent, with the KPÖ at three percent in three of the polls and four percent in one. Until the beginning of August, the Beer Party's figures were still significantly better (up to six percent). According to the surveys, the Petrovic list and "None of them" have no chance with values of around one percent.

Larger parties benefit from the plight of the "little ones"
The question of the entry of the "little ones" is relevant insofar as it also influences the distribution of mandates, especially among the larger parties. OGM leader Wolfgang Bachmayer already pointed out at the weekend that the small parties together are likely to achieve at least six to seven percent of the vote. However, if they all fail to make the leap into the National Council, the mandates will become "cheaper" for the larger parties. The result would be that, in addition to the fairly secure joint majority for the FPÖ and ÖVP, a narrow majority for a coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ could also emerge. "With 45 or 46 percent, a mandate majority could be possible," says the OGM leader. This would suddenly make another two-party coalition (between the ÖVP and SPÖ) possible.

According to the experts, it is currently impossible to estimate the extent to which the flood disaster has played a role in the new polls, nor whether this could still change by election day, as Bachmayer explained.

Experts advise caution with polls
In the previous week, political scientists and opinion pollsters also warned caution when interpreting the poll data. After all, in the EU elections in June, the FPÖ ultimately performed weaker than expected in the surveys, while the ÖVP performed better. The Freedom Party did achieve first place - but by a surprisingly narrow margin. Instead of a clear lead, the FPÖ was only just ahead of the ÖVP with 25.4 to 24.5 percent. The polls of the last 30 days before the election had predicted a good two percentage points more for the blue party. The ÖVP, on the other hand, was more than two percentage points ahead of expectations on election day.