Crossroads for Ukraine

What is Kiev allowed to do? The next few hours will decide

Joe Biden will receive Volodymyr Zelensky again on Thursday.

(Bild: AFP/Jim WATSON)

From Tuesday, all the political bigwigs will come together in New York. For Ukraine, the stakes in the skyscraper metropolis are enormous. The sticking point: can Kiev direct Western missiles at Russian targets far from the front lines? Powerful allies are hesitating, while others are rehearsing the uprising.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz seems increasingly irritated: Range restrictions for German missiles are not to be softened or even lifted in Ukraine. In the run-up to the UN General Debate in New York, he chose words that were tantamount to a slap in the face. On Tuesday, Scholz cast doubt on the meaningfulness of the missile debate.

"It is also clear that we are always very focused in our support on what really helps and what is necessary," the beleaguered SPD leader told reporters. Hitting strategically important targets on Russian territory with long-range Western weapons is obviously not one of them for him. "That is not compatible with my personal stance."

Scholz abandons previous maxim
Until now, the credo was "in line with the USA and other allies". In response to a question, Scholz abandoned this political maxim: "We won't do that!" Germany had "good reasons" for this. France and the UK take a completely different view, and the issue threatens to tear the West apart.

Watch his entire statement in the video: 

In the coming hours, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi will have to convince Scholz of the opposite, nothing else is expected of him in his home country. Long-range missiles are reportedly an essential part of his "victory plan", which he has cryptically announced in recent weeks.

In New York, he will meet Scholz as well as US President Joe Biden, who is still hesitating on the issue. So far, Kiev has only been allowed to use weapons against "imminent threats". Political observers see the green light from the USA as a can opener on the issue. As a reminder: at the beginning of the conflict, Germany only supplied helmets to Kiev - and very few of them.

Selensky is currently in New York City.

(Bild: AFP/TIMOTHY A. CLARY)

Selenskyj has to do some convincing
"We are in the process of convincing our partners and will continue to do so (...) that Ukraine needs a fully-fledged reach capability," Selenskyj said recently.

The foreign ministers of the G7 states want to discuss the delivery of longer-range missiles to Ukraine. This was announced by EU Foreign Affairs Representative Josep Borrell on the sidelines of the UN General Debate. It is also clear that Russia is receiving new weapons - including Iranian missiles, although Tehran has repeatedly denied this. There is an increasing threat of an imbalance in favor of Vladimir Putin's troops.

Brussels opposes Scholz
Last Thursday, a majority of the EU Parliament also spoke out in favor of the delivery of long-range weapons. A resolution called for Western weapons to be used against legitimate military targets in Russia. The current regulations would restrict Kiev's right to self-defense. The population and infrastructure would remain exposed to Russian attacks. 

The Austrian MPs from the ÖVP, SPÖ and Greens abstained from the vote. Only the NEOS were in favor, the FPÖ voted unanimously against.

What is a resolution?

• Resolutions are conclusions or resolutions drawn up to set goals or assess progress.
• Resolutions are not legally binding, but are of political importance.
• A resolution builds pressure and is an important means of holding the responsible institutions to account.

What could long-range missiles achieve?
According to military experts, Ukrainian deep strikes within Russia would be of enormous strategic importance for Kiev. Essential military facilities such as ammunition depots or airfields could be targeted more effectively with the help of Western reconnaissance. Deep strikes would force Russian troops to decentralize their camps. One theory is that this would make logistics considerably more difficult and slow down the Russian advance in the medium term.

So why hasn't this happened yet? In a word: fear. Although all of Vladimir Putin's threatened "red lines" have so far proved to be bluffs, Washington in particular is shying away from a tipping point. 

Insiders report that the White House is tormented by the prospect that hardliners in the Kremlin could insist on attacking transit points for missiles on the way to Ukraine in retaliation. Targets in Poland are mentioned in this context. The aim is to prevent a direct conflict.

But lower levels of escalation are also a cause for concern: what if the release of these long-range weapons increases Russian sabotage attacks in Europe and the USA? What if the Kremlin provides Iran with nuclear know-how out of revenge?

Will dangerous acts of desperation increase?
Ukraine has shown impressively in the recent past that strikes within Russian territory do not necessarily provoke an escalation with the Kremlin. Nevertheless, there are concerns that Kiev is resorting to increasingly drastic means to force a decision in its favor. The attack on the Russian region of Kursk could have been a foretaste of this. 

In recent days, Ukraine has succeeded in blowing up ammunition depots deep behind enemy lines with spectacular drone attacks. An impressive example from the Krasnodar region: 

But even if the largest Western allies were to open up Russian territory, the problem of numbers remains. The exact availability of missiles is secret. One thing is certain: The supply is limited and Ukraine lacks all types. The conditions could hardly be worse for Selensky. In his home country, he will be judged by the next few hours. That much is known ...