Escalating costs

Study: Risk of extreme flooding doubled

Global warming is also increasing the risk of heavy rainfall episodes. The costs of climate disasters are threatening to escalate.

(Bild: AFP)

According to a study, climate change has almost doubled the risk of extreme flooding in Central Europe, such as in Austria, Poland, the Czech Republic and other countries. As global warming continues, heavy rainfall episodes will become even heavier and more frequent, warn scientists.

The rainfall of storm "Boris" from September 12 to 15 was the heaviest four-day rainfall ever recorded in Central Europe since records began in 1940, according to the World Weather Attribution scientists' initiative. 

The team led by Friederike Otto from Imperial College London went on to say that the rainfall affected an unusually large area from Germany to Romania, which was even larger than the previous major floods of 1997 and 2002. 

"Climate change is an existential threat"
As global warming continues due to the use of fossil fuels, heavy rainfall episodes will become even heavier and more frequent, the scientists warn. The costs of climate catastrophes threaten to escalate. "Climate change is an existential threat, especially for the poorer sections of society, and all Europeans need to know that combating climate change will make their lives much better," emphasized Friederike Otto.

The rainfall from September 12 to 15 was the heaviest four-day rainfall ever recorded in Central Europe since records began.

(Bild: Sergei Gapon)

A quick analysis presented in mid-September had already shown that climate change probably played a major role in the heavy rainfall episode. According to the Climameter research consortium, the heavy rainfall was largely due to man-made climate change.

Climate change is an existential threat, especially for the poorer sections of society, and all Europeans need to know that tackling climate change will make their lives much better.

Friederike Otto vom Imperial College London

Such so-called attribution studies use data on similar weather situations in the past and compare them statistically with climate simulations. At a local level, a trend towards more river flooding in western and central Europe can be observed.

Consequence of political irresponsibility
"The consequences of the flood disasters in our neighboring countries are dramatic: destroyed villages and livelihoods," said Carla Reemtsma, climate activist and spokesperson for Fridays for Future Germany, commenting on the World Weather Attribution analysis. "And what makes it even worse is that it could have been avoided." The fact that the climate crisis is escalating is the direct result of political irresponsibility.

Science had predicted such scenarios - politics had ignored them, according to Reemtsma. 

Michael Schäfer, Managing Director of the climate protection association Germanzero, explained: "While many give the impression that climate protection measures such as the combustion engine compromise or the heating law go too far, this study shows crystal clear: those who continue to slow down climate protection will reap more and more and worse flood disasters."