Who with whom?

Van der Bellen’s tough coalition poker begins

Herbert Kickl (left) wants to become Federal Chancellor. But who will enter into a coalition with him? His chances are minimal.

(Bild: Krone KREATIV/APA, AFP, Peter Tomschi, REUTERS, NEOS, Krone KREATIV)

A coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ after Sunday's national elections is considered a foregone conclusion. However, the Black-Blue supporters have not yet given up.

It is a premiere in every respect: Never before has a Green prayed for the election victory of an ÖVP politician. Or what you do as a Green. But Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen fervently hopes that ÖVP Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer will win the match against FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl.

What will Van der Bellen do if Kickl wins the election?
Not because he prefers the ÖVP ideologically with its organic farmers and European stance, but because a Nehammer victory solves what he subjectively feels is the biggest problem of his term of office: What will Van der Bellen do if Herbert Kickl wins the election?

Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen

(Bild: APA/EVA MANHART)

In all previous National Council elections, the Federal President has entrusted the first person to form a government on election Sunday. According to custom, this has always been the case. However, the Federal President wants to avoid this in the case of Kickl. This is not laid down in the constitution, but the Austrian constitution gives the Federal President leeway.

Many, such as Lower Austria's Johanna Mikl-Leitner, believe that Van der Bellen could give Kickl the job after all, as he would not achieve a majority anyway. In fact, a government is the most likely outcome anyway or, as some observers say, already in the bag. Karl Nehammer's ÖVP will form a government with the SPÖ.

Industry is against a coalition with the SPÖ
In the absence of an absolute majority of seats, the NEOS will join to complete the black coalition. Some architects are already preparing this behind the scenes. There is resistance to a coalition with the SPÖ, which has moved to the left, particularly in the declining industrial sector. These circles are therefore pushing for a black-blue coalition, which can only be realized if the ÖVP comes first.

Nehammer will not make Kickl chancellor
It is out of the question that the ÖVP under Karl Nehammer will make Herbert Kickl chancellor. As I said, rarely before has a Federal President (had to) rely so heavily on an ÖVP leader. The situation in which a coalition is formed between the second and third-placed candidate is also nothing new. This was the case in 2000, when Wolfgang Schüssel (ÖVP) was sworn in as Federal Chancellor, although he finished a wafer-thin third behind the FPÖ. The FPÖ leader at the time, Jörg Haider, renounced government office and allowed Susanne Riess-Passer (now Riess-Hahn) to take over as the first female Vice-Chancellor of the Republic.

Looking back: In 2000, the second-placed FPÖ with party leader Jörg Haider made the third-placed ÖVP with Wolfgang Schüssel the new chancellor's party. Much to the displeasure of Federal President Thomas Klestil.

(Bild: APA/HARALD SCHNEIDER)

Speaking of giving way: Karl Nehammer decidedly rules out a coalition with Herbert Kickl, but not with the FPÖ.

FPÖ without Kickl in government is impossible
Could there be a repeat of the model from the year 2000, in which Herbert Kickl does not lead the FPÖ into government, but instead the head of the blue party is content with the job of President of the National Council or the chairman of the parliamentary party? If you ask around among the blue party, the answer is a unanimous "no". Kickl does not want to make Haider's mistake again. Back in 2019, the day after the Ibiza video was published, the ÖVP failed to pull off this coup. At the time, the ÖVP called for Kickl to resign alongside Strache. This did not go down well with the FPÖ. The coalition was broken up and, as is well known, new elections were held.