National Council election 2024

5 reasons why Styria is in the spotlight today

More than 950,000 Styrians are eligible to vote.

(Bild: Jauschowetz Christian)

Austria is electing a new National Council today - and many eyes are on Styria in particular. Why the Green Mark often stands out from the rest of the country and why the result can influence the state election.

Styria has the fourth highest number of eligible voters after Lower Austria, Upper Austria and Vienna. Nevertheless, the Styrian result in particular could attract national interest this evening. Here are five reasons why.

1) Die Steiermark als „Swing State“

Election forecasts are difficult, especially when it comes to Styria. While many other federal states produce reliable winners (e.g. the SPÖ in Vienna and Burgenland, the ÖVP in Lower Austria and Tyrol), the Grüne Mark is always good for a surprise. Traditionally an ÖVP state, Franz Voves, a Social Democrat, has already been elected governor. And in the 2013 National Council elections, the FPÖ was number 1, which is why Styria is also known as the "swing state", in reference to the few states in the USA that decide elections. The Styrian result is also often very close to the federal result.

2) Graz ist völlig unberechenbar

Election forecasts are even more difficult when they concern Graz. The state capital is completely unpredictable, which has been clear since 2021 at the latest, when the communist Elke Kahr sensationally won the municipal elections. The Greens have also been ahead in Austria's second largest city (National Council elections in 2013), the ÖVP won the most recent state elections and the SPÖ won the EU elections in June. The FPÖ is having a much harder time in the student-dominated urban environment than in the rural regions of Styria, but a good result cannot be ruled out.

Elke Kahr and Robert Krotzer celebrated the surprising election victory of the KPÖ Graz in 2021.

(Bild: Sepp Pail)

3) Die KPÖ hofft auf ein Wunder

It would be a first in the Second Republic if a party failed to reach the four percent threshold nationwide but still managed to enter the National Council with a basic mandate. This is what the KPÖ dreams of. Around eleven percent of the valid votes would have to be achieved in the Graz/Graz-Umgebung constituency. This seems extremely difficult because it is not only the result in the city that counts, but also in the surrounding area - and the Communists are much less successful there.

4) Die nächste Wahl steht vor der Tür

Only eight weeks after the National Council elections, a new provincial parliament will be elected in Styria. Today's result could be a yardstick for this ballot, as polls also see the FPÖ in first place at provincial level. A strong blue result in the National Council election would mean a tailwind. ÖVP provincial governor Christopher Drexler has to fight like Chancellor Karl Nehammer - if Nehammer keeps the losses within acceptable limits, this would give Drexler hope. And SPÖ leader Anton Lang would be inconvenienced by another internal trench war after Andreas Babler's defeat. The government negotiations in Vienna will also have an influence on the Styrian election campaign.

5) Der Flüchtlingsansturm wirkt noch nach

It is now nine years since thousands of migrants were stranded daily at the Styrian-Slovenian border in Spielfeld. The state lost control for a while. The images from back then still have an impact today, especially in the southern Styrian wine-growing region, otherwise known and loved throughout Austria as a tourist destination. Since the events of 2015 and 2016, the FPÖ has performed particularly well here. If this is the case again this time, it could be interpreted as evidence of how persistently the issue of migration concerns the population - and influences their voting decisions.