Fear and destruction

Lebanon: Up to one million people could be displaced

After the devastating attacks in Beirut: A woman cries while a man reads the Koran.

(Bild: APA/AFP)

According to Lebanon's acting Prime Minister Nadschib Mikati, up to one million people could be displaced by the Israeli attacks. This is already the largest number of displaced persons in the country's history, Mikati said in Beirut. There can only be a diplomatic solution to the current conflict with Israel: "There is no choice for us but diplomacy."

According to UN figures, more than 210,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon since the start of the new confrontations between Israel's army and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia, including around 120,000 in the course of last week alone. However, according to the United Nations, the number could be significantly higher, also based on the experience of the last war with Israel in 2006.

Great fear of further attacks
Many people are also sleeping in parks, on the street or on the beach for fear of further attacks in the south, east or around the capital Beirut. 50,000 Syrians and Lebanese have also fled to the neighboring civil war country of Syria.

Following the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israel on Friday, the Lebanese army has warned of new conflicts within Lebanon. "The army command calls on all citizens to preserve national unity and not to allow themselves to be drawn into actions that jeopardize civil peace in this dangerous and sensitive phase in our country's history," the army announced on Sunday. With its attacks, Israel is working to implement destructive plans and widen the division among the Lebanese.

(Bild: ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Consequences of Nasrallah's killing unclear
It is unclear what consequences the killing of Nasrallah will have for Lebanon. In the areas under its control, Hezbollah acts as a state in its own right and is responsible for infrastructure, healthcare facilities, schools and youth programs. It is also an influential political party and provides ministers. It acts like a state within a state. According to surveys, however, comparatively few people in the country support it, with around 30 percent of the population rejecting Hezbollah.

Long crisis in Lebanon
Even before the latest escalation with Israel, Lebanon, with a population of over six million, had long been in the deepest economic and political crisis since the end of the 15-year civil war in 1990, in which an estimated 150,000 people died. The system of proportional representation between the former civil war opponents Shiites, Sunnis and Christians ultimately led to paralysis. The country had already sunk into debt years ago and the currency was in free fall.

The catastrophic explosion in the capital Beirut on August 4, 2020, which killed around 200 people, injured around 6,000 and left hundreds of thousands homeless, led to mass protests against the government, which eventually resigned. A new government was a long time coming; it is only in office on a caretaker basis. The office of president is vacant. Lebanon is also home to around 1.5 million refugees from Syria.

(Bild: ASSOCIATED PRESS)

War between Israel and Lebanon in 2006
The last war between Israel and Lebanon took place in 2006. It was triggered by the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers in the Shebaa Farms region by Hezbollah. The 30 square kilometer area on the border between Syria, Lebanon and Israel has long been disputed.

The head of the Maronite Church in Lebanon called on the international community to stop the "cycle of war, killings and destruction" in Lebanon. "The death of (Hezbollah leader) Hassan Nasrallah has opened a wound in the heart of the Lebanese," said the Maronite Patriarch Béchara Boutros Raï in his Sunday sermon, expressing his dismay. The international community must work seriously to create a "just peace" in Lebanon with rights for all people in the region.

It is estimated that 70 percent of the population in the sectarian country are Muslims, who are roughly equally divided between Shiite and Sunni followers of Islam. Around 30 percent are Christians. More than half of these are Maronites.

State structures need to be strengthened
According to economist Alia Mubajid, the state structures in Lebanon urgently need to be strengthened following the killing of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah. "Only state-building will save Lebanon," she wrote on X on Sunday. She has been dealing with economic issues in the Middle East for banks and governments for 25 years.

The speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri, a Shiite, must also allow parliament to convene in order to elect a new president, Mubajid continued. The country has been without a head of state for two years due to a dispute over the succession. In addition, the government must declare a state of emergency, deploy the army nationwide, mobilize donations to support the many displaced people and prepare a plan to improve the economic situation, Mubajid wrote.