A roller of fire in the Middle East

Israel’s determination was underestimated

War is already raging in Lebanon.

(Bild: ASSOCIATED PRESS)

An expert from the Friedrich Ebert Foundation believes the war has "already arrived in Lebanon." It remains to be seen whether the situation in the entire Middle East will explode. Israel continues to act decisively against its enemies. Iran warns, but hesitates to react. 

Is this the eve of a major war in the Middle East? "Hassan Nasrallah was our Osama Bin Laden once ten. For more than thirty years, he killed our civilians while helping other terrorist organizations become better at killing us," wrote Nadav Pollak, a lecturer at Israel's Reichman University, on the death of the Hezbollah leader in an Israeli air strike in the Lebanese capital Beirut.

Nasrallah's death also hits Iran hard
A heavy blow for Israel's enemies. First and foremost for Iran, which initiated the founding of Hezbollah in 1982. "Everyone should be aware that the situation is extremely explosive and that anything is possible at any time. Even war," warned Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

Marcus Schneider, Middle East expert at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, differentiates. The war that is already here is the Lebanon war. "With the elimination of Nasrallah, the step towards final escalation has been taken. Even diplomacy can no longer stop it."

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

(Bild: ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Ground offensive likely
The expert suspects that Israel will soon launch a ground offensive similar to the one in the Gaza Strip. A security policy necessity. Tens of thousands of Israelis have had to flee the north of the country to the border with Lebanon due to the ongoing shelling by Hezbollah. According to Schneider, Israel will probably take possession of southern Lebanon in order to create a safe buffer zone for the inhabitants of northern Israel.

Why is a ground offensive necessary? Hezbollah cannot be defeated from the air alone. The area in the south is riddled with tunnels and military infrastructure that can only be destroyed from the ground. But that could also be the calculation of Hezbollah and Iran: Their fighters know the area like the back of their hand, Israel's army has been preparing for this war since 2006, but is still entering foreign territory. And Iran could send militias into the country for reinforcement via neighboring Syria.

Israel masses ground troops on the border with Lebanon

(Bild: APA/AFP/Menahem KAHANA)

"Iran wants to keep the conflict hot, but doesn't want a fire to break out," says Schneider. In the event of a major war, the future of the regime is also at stake. A few weeks ago, it looked as if Iran held all the trump cards. Hamas was keeping Israel on its toes and the country was being criticized for the Gaza war. Even from close allies such as the USA.

And now? Within just a few weeks, Israel has not only succeeded in defeating Hamas militarily, but also in "tearing apart Hezbollah like a predator tears apart its prey", as CNN put it.

Israel was clearly underestimated
"Nobody expected these strikes," says Schneider. Iran's allies demand a response. Tehran hesitates. In the meantime, Israel is targeting the next member of the "axis of resistance", the Houthis. The air force has attacked rebel military targets in Yemen with dozens of fighter jets.

Israel's determination had probably been underestimated. And overestimated the so-called "axis of resistance".