The initial situation

Styria votes in 8 weeks: Will there be a duel?

The Styrian top candidates Mario Kunasek (FPÖ), Christopher Drexler (ÖVP), Anton Lang (SPÖ), NIko Swatek (Neos), Sandra Krautwaschl (Greens) and Claudia Klimt-Weithaler (KPÖ)

(Bild: Jauschowetz Christian)

Just eight weeks after the National Council elections, a new state parliament will be elected in Styria. Will the next blue march through? ÖVP state governor Christopher Drexler sees a duel between himself and former minister Mario Kunasek. The SPÖ would be out of the game. That is the starting position.

More than 32 percent for the FPÖ in Styria! This result sent shockwaves through the party headquarters in Graz on Sunday afternoon. The ÖVP, which won by a wide margin in 2019, was clearly distanced by five percentage points. The SPÖ even slipped below the 20 percent mark.

Not only that: the Freedom Party is number 1 in eleven out of 13 Styrian districts. Only in south-eastern Styria did the ÖVP narrowly remain first. The provincial capital of Graz once again danced out of line, with the SPÖ receiving the most votes.

Drexler: Duel between ÖVP and SPÖ
What does this mean for the provincial elections on November 24? Until now, it was assumed that there would be a three-way fight between ÖVP state governor Christopher Drexler, his SPÖ deputy Anton Lang and FPÖ leader Mario Kunasek - with the polls showing an advantage for the Freedom Party. On Sunday evening, Drexler then caused a small surprise when he spoke only of a duel between himself and Kunasek. He openly asked for borrowed votes from those who want to prevent a blue state governor. Chancellor Karl Nehammer had already tried this strategy - ultimately without much success.

Anton Lang, who never took an offensive stance in Andreas Babler's team, did not admit defeat on election night: "Unlike the federal party, we in Styria have taken a middle course. But the internal discussions have hurt us." The big question is whether the man from Leoben will be able to recapture some of the former working-class strongholds on November 24, such as his home town, but also Kapfenberg, Knittelfeld, Bruck and Judenburg. 

Blue financial scandal plays no role
FPÖ leader and former minister Mario Kunasek is keeping his cool. The state election has its own laws, he emphasized on Sunday. The hopes of FPÖ opponents that the blue financial scandal in Graz - where up to 1.8 million euros in party funds are said to have disappeared - will have an impact on the elections are likely to have been dashed by 5 p.m. on Sunday at the latest.

What is remarkable, also for the Graz political scientist Heinz Wassermann (FH Joanneum), is the good result of the Neos, who have overtaken the Greens in Styria. Just a few days before the national elections, the Styrian Neos leader Niko Swatek spoke confidently of a good result on Sunday, which will provide a tailwind for the regional elections. The party is also hoping for gains and a third mandate and would be prepared to participate in government.

Greens will hardly be able to maintain their result
The Greens are struggling with the result. The sharp drop in Graz (from 25 to 15 percent) is particularly painful, as this is the Green stronghold that usually makes up for the weak results in the regions. In 2019, the Greens sailed to success in the slipstream of the Fridays for Future movement, which was popular at the time, and their six seats in the provincial parliament will be hard to hold on to.

And the KPÖ? In the end, it clearly missed out on its dream of entering the National Council, but is not dissatisfied. Its votes tripled compared to 2019. The state election polls promise gains for the Communists. It will be interesting to see whether the still popular mayor of Graz, Elke Kahr, will become more involved in the state election campaign.

Next election campaign starts on Tuesday
Expert Heinz Wassermann expects that the focus in Styria will be clearly on November 24 from Tuesday. However, an eye will always be kept on Vienna, as the government negotiations there will certainly influence the Styrian ballot. If the FPÖ is thwarted by Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen or the other parties, this could boost the Freedom Party in Styria even more. Keyword: "Now more than ever!" The countdown is on.