Christoph Haselmayer:

“ÖVP is about to lose Lower Austria too”

(Bild: krone.tv)

Opinion researcher and political insider Christoph Haselmayer analyzes the result of the National Council election and the realistic options for the future governing coalition in the krone.tv program 'Nach der Wahl'. 

"This was a historic day for the FPÖ. An even stronger result than in 1999 under Jörg Haider. The FPÖ has only managed to achieve first place at federal level once before - in the EU elections in June." According to Haselmayer, it would have been a start-to-finish victory for the FPÖ.

The election result in Lower Austria was particularly close: "It was a neck-and-neck race: 30 percent for the ÖVP, 29 percent for the FPÖ. At the moment, however, there is still a range of fluctuation, as not all ballot cards have been counted yet." An interesting detail: municipalities that were badly affected by the floods surprisingly had a blue majority. Sieghartskirchen, for example, and Atzenbrug also had a high proportion of FPÖ voters. Haselmayer: "The floods have paid off for the blue party. And it also fits in with the general mood among the population, where many people have experienced destruction in their own homes. If the trend continues, the ÖVP is also set to lose Lower Austria in the next state election in 2028."

(Bild: krone.tv)

Five federal states with a liberalmajority
 In the federal states of Styria, Upper Austria, Carinthia and Burgenland, there was already a liberal majority in the National Council elections: "Even in Vienna, the district of Floridsdorf has an FPÖ majority. Favoriten and Simmering also have a strong FPÖ result. That is a strong warning signal to the Vienna SPÖ. And to the city government. And there will be elections in Vienna next fall."

SPÖ with car against the wall 
According to the political expert, there is no realistic chance of a two-party coalition. First of all, the Federal President has his say, he said, and will allow a long period of soundings. But after the slight loss for the SPÖ and the biggest loss for the ÖVP in the Second Republic, Haselmayer believes that a black-red two-party coalition would be a coalition of the losing parties.

Haselmayer: "ÖVP-SPÖ is unrealistic. According to our data, the most popular option is blue/black. But the FPÖ, as the strongest party, will lay claim to the chancellorship. And then Nehammer will no longer be chancellor. So a 'Zuckerlkoalition' of ÖVP/SPÖ and Greens might be more realistic. However, the SPÖ would also have to make concessions to Andreas Babler's demands. Because at the moment, the SPÖ is like a car that drives into the wall without brakes."