Practically impossible
A turquoise-red government is now off the table
The counting of all postal votes has not resulted in any more mandate shifts. Turquoise-Red would now have a majority of 92 seats, but that is not enough to govern. If there is no FPÖ-ÖVP, a turquoise-red-pink "candy" is needed.
The final result of the National Council election is now available after all postal votes have been counted. The ÖVP and SPÖ together have exactly 92 seats. That is a majority, but not enough for a stable coalition.
Governing with a mandate surplus is virtually impossible. This means that the turquoise-red option in the coalition poker game is not a real one. Josef Cap, the longstanding SPÖ parliamentary group leader, puts it clearly in the "Krone" newspaper: "That is unthinkable. You can blackmail every single member of parliament." In addition, cases of illness and other absences would also destroy a majority in parliament.
He needs at least three or four mandates overhang. A vote in the Bundesrat last year shows what can happen if the government has too narrow a majority.
Federal Council had to rush from rehab to parliament
The ORF Act was voted on there in July 2023. Two members of the turquoise-green coalition (31 seats) were unable to attend, one turquoise member was in labor and one green member was in rehab. They relied on getting the vote through anyway with a mandate overhang because the FPÖ falsely claimed that one of their MPs would not be there, which was not true. Suddenly the Turquoise-Greens no longer had a majority, the score was 29 to 29.
The Green, Adi Gross, had to rush to parliament from the rehabilitation center in Lower Austria. Turkish and Green MPs had to "filibuster" (make long speeches) to delay the vote, Gross recounts in an interview with the "Krone" newspaper. "It took me three hours to get to parliament after all."
Such failures are not the only problem with a narrow majority. It happens again and again that individual MPs reject certain projects contrary to the party line. If the government majority is not appropriately secured, each individual MP can "blackmail" their own party with their vote.
ÖVP and SPÖ need the "candy"
The last postal votes were counted on Thursday evening. Around 15 percent of all postal votes were counted, or several tens of thousands of votes. The count took longer than expected and did not result in the expected shift of a mandate from the FPÖ to the ÖVP.
The Turquoise and Red parties therefore only have 92 seats between them. This is a majority that is only secured by a single vote. In reality, a Turquoise-Red coalition is only a theoretical possibility. One would not take this risk. If the People's Party and the Social Democrats want to govern, they need the NEOS or the Greens for a "Zuckerlkoalition".
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