Hot coalition poker

State elections as a latent danger for the chancellor’s plan

There are still four more rounds of elections in the federal states before the end of January 2025. These could have a major impact on the coalition poker at federal level and put Chancellor Karl Nehammer under even more pressure.

(Bild: Krone KREATIV/APA)

Further victories for the Freedom Party in the federal states will increase the pressure on ÖVP leader and Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer. A total of four rounds of elections are still to be held before the end of January 2025. Vorarlberg will elect a new state parliament in a week's time on Sunday.

The FPÖ can expect a tailwind from the National Council elections. The influence in the other direction on the coalition poker in Vienna is unlikely to be very great in this election.

But the coalition negotiators could become uncomfortable by the time the elections in Styria take place at the end of November at the latest.

The regional elections are a latent threat to Chancellor Karl Nehammer's plan.

Politikberater Thomas Hofer

The state elections are a danger for the ÖVP
"Should the FPÖ become first in Styria, this could influence the coalition history in Vienna," said political consultant Thomas Hofer in an interview with the "Krone" newspaper. The Freedom Party is predicted to make strong gains in both Vorarlberg and Styria.

The upcoming state elections are a threat to the ÖVP and its chancellor Karl Nehammer.

(Bild: APA/HANS KLAUS TECHT)

All four rounds of elections that we are now facing will bring even more emotion into the negotiations.

Politikberater Thomas Hofer

Is black-blue coming to Vorarlberg?
In Vorarlberg, Governor Markus Wallner is fighting for supremacy against Christof Bitschi (FPÖ). In the national elections, the FPÖ (27.1 percent) was only just behind the ÖVP (29.1 percent). The ÖVP is expected to come a close first and enter into a coalition with the Freedom Party. The People's Party currently holds over 40 percent and is in a coalition with the Greens.

The blue Bitschi is causing headaches for LH Wallner

(Bild: DIETMAR STIPLOVSEK )

New momentum for FPÖ Burgenland
With the move to send Norbert Hofer into battle against Hans Peter Doskozil in Burgenland, the FPÖ is also making things exciting there. On the one hand, this is a threat to Governor Doskozil, who can defend an absolute majority, but it could also put pressure on ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer. "The state elections are a latent danger for Nehammer's plan" to hold the chancellorship in second place via a "Zuckerl" coalition with the SPÖ and NEOS.

There are still four rounds of elections in the federal states until the end of January 2025.

(Bild: APA/BARBARA GINDL / APA / picturedesk.com)

Styrians hope for long negotiations in Vienna
In Styria, both ÖVP state governor Christopher Drexler and his red coalition partner Anton Lang are hoping that the government negotiations at federal level will take as long as possible and that no coalition against the FPÖ will be formed before the elections. This would play into the hands of the Freedom Party, it is feared. The blue front man Herbert Kickl has already started this narrative.

In Styria, the ÖVP and SPÖ have been governing together for many years

(Bild: Christian Jauschowetz)

In January, there will also be local council elections in Lower Austria. "All four rounds of elections that we are now facing will bring even more emotion to the negotiations," says Hofer. If the ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS do not reach an agreement quickly, the tide may yet turn for Nehammer. Nervousness will certainly increase.

Doskozil must deliver at the end of January
From the FPÖ's point of view, government negotiations between the ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS are an additional boost for the state elections. Party leader Herbert Kickl also made a statement in this direction after the one-on-one meeting with Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen. The losers would hang on and ignore the will of the voters. He is now launching an attack on the provincial governors and sending Norbert Hofer to Burgenland. This kills two birds with one stone: he gets rid of Hofer, who would have liked to become President of the National Council, and he puts Governor Doskozil under a lot of pressure.

An exciting match is brewing in Burgenland

(Bild: Krone KREATIV/APA)

Hans Peter Doskozil is in danger of being ousted from his seat as governor by the ÖVP and FPÖ. However, momentum could also develop in the direction of a red-blue coalition. "There's a lot of movement now, you've seen how volatile it is," says Hofer. Van der Bellen's strategy of playing for time also harbors risks.