Since the October massacre

Wave of terror in Europe: the sad interim result

Violence, helplessness, deep grief: this cycle is now repeating itself alarmingly often in Europe.

(Bild: Krone KREATIV, AFP/dpa)

The bloodthirsty October massacre by Islamist Hamas a year ago has also cast a dark shadow over Europe. The slaughter of Jewish lives and the subsequent explosion of violence in the Middle East provided all the ingredients for a new wave of terror. A sad interim balance.

The fact that the risk of jihadist attacks has risen rapidly over the past twelve months is not just a sinking feeling. It is a bitter reality and can be backed up by figures. According to terror researcher Peter R. Neumann, nine people have lost their lives to Islamists on European soil since October 7.

Knives were the weapon of choice and the crime scenes did not follow a strict pattern: terrorists killed visitors to a city festival, activists on a market square, a teacher in class or a tourist during a city trip in Paris.

Danger more than quintupled
In his study, Neumann estimates that 36 jihadist attacks have been carried out or planned in the past twelve months. Eleven times the plan was put into action. In the other cases, the authorities were able to intervene beforehand and prevent worse.

The chart shows Islamist attack efforts in Europe since October 7, 2023. In brackets: actions actually carried out

(Bild: Krone KREATIV)

For comparison: Europol counted a total of two executed and four foiled terrorist attacks by Islamists in 2022. Even if right-wing and left-wing terrorism are included in the equation, there were "only" 28 attacks (16 carried out, 12 foiled) - and thus significantly less terrorist activity than since October 7.

We live in polarized times
With the resurgence of the Middle East conflict, a new wave of terrorism has swept towards Europe. According to Neumann, German-speaking nations in particular are being targeted by the perpetrators of violence. Germany, Austria and Switzerland account for more than half of all attempted attacks. 

About the survey

• Neumann examined all reported cases in EU countries that were already members before 2004 - including Norway and Switzerland.
• This means that Islamist terrorist attacks in Russia or Turkey were not counted. The focus is on Western Europe.
• In addition to completed attacks, only incidents where preparations were at an advanced stage were included.

The perpetrator profile is a cause for concern: young people in particular are brainwashed by hate preachers and incited to commit bloody acts. Social media such as the Chinese platform TikTok are at the heart of this radicalization. The most recent cases in Austria in particular show that this process often begins in children's bedrooms.

In both the foiled attacks on the Vienna concert series by superstar Taylor Swift and the attack on the Israeli Consulate General in Munich, young Austrians with a migrant background swore allegiance to the Islamic State (IS).

"Prevention, early warning systems, observation and repression must focus particularly on this target group," explained Neumann in a blog post on the young perpetrators, whom he calls "TikTok terrorists".

In Germany, on the other hand, the area of asylum and flight is disproportionately affected: Of 45 jihadist terrorists in the past eight years, 40 were asylum seekers or refugees, according to Neumann's survey. According to the statistics, this is just 0.002 percent of all people who have arrived since 2016, but it does not make the problem any smaller.

Jewish life is under threat again
Another dark realization is that Jews in Europe have to fear for their lives again. After the Hamas terror, residential addresses in Germany, for example, were marked with the Star of David. A "caliphate" was proclaimed at demonstrations in Hamburg. And the demand for the destruction of Israel ("From the river to the sea") also seems to be socially acceptable again in left-wing milieus.

In April, there were calls for a "caliphate" in Hamburg.

(Bild: APA Pool/AXEL HEIMKEN)

Also striking: Jewish students were harassed throughout Europe and their participation in classes was sometimes prevented by fellow students.

"More than a third of the attacks and planned attacks (36 percent) were directed in whole or in part against Jews, Jewish institutions or Israel," says expert Neumann.

It could get even worse
Since October 7, the Middle East conflict has mutated into a conflagration that is no longer limited to the Gaza Strip. Israel has now shifted its focus to Lebanon and produced more martyrs. For example, the Israeli armed forces succeeded in killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was revered as a god far beyond the borders of Lebanon.

Iran has already actively fired missiles towards Israel twice and the knives are now also being sharpened in Syria and Yemen. European governments are currently failing at the balancing act of criticizing the humanitarian suffering in the region - without straining the alliance with Israel.

Neumann: It's not too late!
But there is also good news: The comparison with 2022 makes it clear that the authorities are able to thwart attacks much more frequently. At least two out of three. Neumann: "So it's not true that this type of terrorism cannot be prevented. Of course, there is no such thing as 100% certainty, but the security authorities' success rate is high and can be further increased."

Neumann's message: it's not too late! "Terrorist waves typically reach their peak after two or three years. And there is no reason why this wave has to be as devastating as the last one." But action must be taken now!

Editor's note: The current events in Sweden have not been included in this article, as too little was known about the background to the shooting at the time of publication.