Duel between ÖVP and FPÖ

State election: The art of mobilization

Voter turnout in this year's state election is likely to be significantly higher than last time

(Bild: Mathis Fotografie)

The outcome of the election in Vorarlberg next Sunday will depend to a large extent on how many people ultimately go to the polls. Or to put it another way: Which party has the best "lure"? 

It is well known that the voting behavior of Vorarlberg voters has certain peculiarities compared to the rest of Austria. This applies in particular to voter turnout, which is generally lower than in other federal states - especially in EU and presidential elections. And traditionally, fewer people vote in Vorarlberg in state parliament elections than in National Council elections. Five years ago, for example, voter turnout was only 61.4 percent, and the number of non-voters, at around 104,000, even exceeded the votes of the governing partners ÖVP and the Greens, who together cast 103,000 crosses.

The low turnout was mainly due to the Ibiza affair: Around 10,000 citizens who had voted for the Blue Party in 2014 had stayed away from the polls, according to voter flow analysis. As the situation was already clear beforehand, the ÖVP was also unable to attract its core voters to the polls - 6,000 VP voters from 2014 did not fill in their ballot papers in 2019. The Greens were the main beneficiaries of this black-blue electoral fatigue, enjoying a record result of 18.9%.

The Freedom Party sniffing at first place
This year, however, the signs are completely different. The Freedom Party is flying high; in the national elections on September 29, the gap to the top dog ÖVP in Vorarlberg was just 3889 votes. In view of the historic opportunity to unseat the blacks for the first time, Christof Bitschi and co. will probably have no trouble mobilizing their core clientele. Conversely, traditional ÖVP supporters will probably not be asked twice to cast their vote, as there really is a lot at stake. It is therefore a calculated move if even the head of the state party, Markus Wallner, who has been in office since 2011, is drumming up a duel for the state governor's seat.

In view of a provincial election that has been stylized as a duel, the Greens, NEOS and SPÖ are in great danger of falling by the wayside. They are therefore trying to make the coalition issue the core topic of this election - whether this interpretation will catch on with the citizens is at least doubtful.