"Krone" analyzes
Mood barometer: Styrian parties in the check
The "Steirerkrone" election barometer five weeks before the regional elections: ÖVP and SPÖ have improved slightly, the Greens and Neos are down. What are the reasons behind this?
Who is winning, who is losing? The numerous opinion polls for the regional elections are more or less meaningful. Some are even used strategically - to help or harm one party or another.
We will definitely not find out the real outcome in Styria today, but only on November 24. Then, when not just a few hundred Styrians will be polled by an institute, but when almost a million people in the state will be allowed to cast their vote.
Mood shifts somewhat
The "Steirerkrone" editors have summarized the mood for the main parties five weeks before the election here for the second time. Compared to the first election barometer two weeks ago, in the meantime - including the Vorarlberg elections - the mood for the ÖVP has improved slightly at a low level in our eyes, while the mood for the SPÖ has improved somewhat more.
While the exceptionally high level of sentiment for the Freedom Party, which we had already identified as being at its peak two weeks ago, could no longer be improved. On the other hand, we see the Greens and Neos in negative territory, while the KPÖ remains stable. All of this remains a snapshot. The next barometer will follow.
"The heavy losses in the national elections, especially in Styria, came as a shock to us." A high-ranking ÖVP official expressed what many black people were thinking after the even darker September 29. Since the Vorarlberg election, however, the People's Party has regained hope, "because people can really distinguish between a federal and a state election". It is clear to everyone in the party that the decision on victory or defeat will be made in the state capital. The ÖVP's losses in the districts were too glaring - the blue hurricane swept over almost every former black stronghold. So Graz. On the one hand, it is hoped that the FPÖ's financial scandal has left its mark on the electorate and, on the other, that the KPÖ's trees are no longer growing into the sky. In any case, it is noticeable that state governor Christopher Drexler is now also devoting more attention to the capital, and the attacks by city party leader Kurt Hohensinner against KPÖ mayor Elke Kahr are also getting tougher. The only question that remains is whether this will be credibly received by the people.
28 percent in the Vorarlberg election and, in all likelihood, a black-blue coalition in Austria's smallest federal state: the "blue wave is rolling", as federal party leader Herbert Kickl exults. In Styria, too, the signs are pointing to victory for the FPÖ on November 24 - Mario Kunasek's party is already top of the polls in most institutes. Nevertheless, Kunasek does not want to praise the day before the evening: We are starting from scratch, he says - and accepts the duel for governor called by the blacks. What distinguishes him from Christopher Drexler is his closeness to "the people", he said in an interview with "Steirerkrone" this week. In fact, the ÖVP regional leader continues to struggle with moderate popularity ratings. However, there are currently two downsides for the Freedom Party: with KFG, DNA and MFG, three lists are running in Graz that are fishing in the blue voter pond and could cost them a few percentage points. In addition, the FPÖ in Lower Austria wants to close three hospitals and set up a lead hospital - the same model that Kunasek and Co. are known to criticize heavily in Styria ...
The SPÖ's extraordinary party conference in Leoben was intended to serve as an injection of courage for the Styrian comrades and their chairman Anton Lang. The mood prior to the conference was poor; after the bitter defeat in the National Council elections, heads were drooping throughout. The therapy for the depression helped: "Toni", as the functionaries call him, gained 96% support and thus broad backing for the regional elections. How did the trend reversal succeed? Lang had long remained silent about Babler's left-wing fantasies out of loyalty to the chairman, but after the election debacle he broke his self-imposed vow of silence. He openly addressed problems with migrants and demanded consequences for all those who do not want to integrate. The comrades saw the shift to the right as a long overdue liberating blow, so that the SPÖ is no longer just a spectator in the top duel with FPÖ leader Mario Kunasek, as proclaimed by ÖVP provincial governor Christopher Drexler. Now it is up to the Reds to carry the momentum into the weeks leading up to the election.
The Greens are currently barely present at a national political level and are only marginally involved in talks about a possible government. So there is currently no disruptive fire to be expected from Vienna for the Green election campaign in Styria. However, the lack of media presence also makes it difficult to position their own issues. The intensive election campaign has begun these days - in Graz, of course, where the party believes it has the best chances. An exciting question: is it possible - especially in the provincial capital - to win back voters who voted for the SPÖ in the national elections? Andreas Babler is more popular in urban areas. And the second open question: does Judith Schwentner's transport policy play a role in Graz?
Anyone who talks to Niko Swatek, lead candidate for the Styrian Neos, these days will notice his great confidence with regard to the election on November 24. The Pinks are assuming that they will be able to make gains - as they did this year in the EU and National Council elections. And Swatek also states in an interview with the "Krone" that he does not want to be part of a future state government at any price. The prerequisite is that the coalition partners are ready for reforms. The great danger, however, is that the election campaign will come to a head in the coming weeks with a duel or a three-way fight at the top and that the smaller parties will fall by the wayside. Swatek is already advising against "tactical voting", as this has never led to the desired success in Austria.
She kept a low profile in the EU and National Council elections, but in the regional elections the Mayor of Graz, Elke Kahr, made her presence felt right from the start and presented the key issues with lead candidate Claudia Klimt-Weithaler. It came as no surprise that the communist's pet issue of affordable housing was right at the top of the list. However, the fact that the Graz ÖVP in particular criticized the head of the city was quite surprising. After all, all polls show that Kahr is still very popular - even beyond the city limits of Graz. "She's a bit like Mother Teresa," says one competitor almost resignedly. Nevertheless, the KPÖ cannot take a good election result on November 24th for granted.
This article has been automatically translated,
read the original article here.
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