A few votes count

These seven swing states will decide the US election

Americans of Arab descent are turning their backs on Kamala Harris.

(Bild: AFP/JEFF KOWALSKY)

They tip the scales in the tough tussle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump: the so-called swing states. Exactly seven states will decide the US presidential election. Why every minute counts in the election campaign.

50 states make up the United States of America. The election will be decided in just seven of them. These are the so-called swing states, the states with changing majorities. 43 states are therefore uninteresting for the election, as one of the two parties is forever entrenched there.

This is especially true for the Republican cowboy states of the Midwest, which are, however, favored by electoral law due to the number of electoral votes.

The race is close, time is short. For Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, every minute counts in the election campaign. Between now and the vote on November 5, the Democrat and the Republican will prioritize travel to where the election will ultimately be decided - the swing states.

The reason for this is the electoral system. Strictly speaking, there are 51 presidential elections (states plus the capital Washington). Who becomes president is not decided by the total number of votes cast nationwide, but by 538 delegates from the states.

The so-called electoral college is formed proportionally according to population size - plus two delegates from each state, analogous to the senatorial seats in the individual states. In all but two states, the following applies: where a candidate is ahead, he or she is awarded all the electoral college delegates for that state, regardless of the exact voting ratios.

Experts expect a close decision in the seven key states. Below is an overview of the key issues in these regions:

19 Wahlleute

Pennsylvania – der Königsmacher?

Pennsylvania is considered by many US analysts to be perhaps the most important state in the election. Due to the high number of people voting, an overall victory for both candidates is much more difficult without this state. Important issues in the state, which is characterized by a strong middle class, are the high cost of living and the controversial extraction of natural gas through fracking. The polls do not show a favorite here. The state is designated as a so-called "Toss-up".

16 Wahlleute

Georgia – Chaos ist vorprogrammiert

After six victories for the Republicans, Joe Biden won the southern state of Georgia for the Democrats in 2020. The share of the black vote was particularly important for this success, as they make up around a third of all voters there. However, polls in the spring had shown that Biden was losing ground among younger blacks in particular.

Harris has only partially closed the gap. In Georgia, there is also the threat of another long tussle over the counting of votes. Most recently, the staunchly conservative election supervisory authority decided that all votes must be counted by hand. This means that disputes could last for days and weeks.

16 Wahlleute

North Carolina – Harris hofft auf Sensation

North Carolina is actually conservative: with the exception of Barack Obama in 2008, the state has always voted for the Republican presidential candidate. However, with many newcomers and a high proportion of blacks, Harris is hoping for a surprise.

Another election decision on November 5 could also ensure this: North Carolina will also elect a new governor. In Mark Robinson, the Republicans have put forward an extreme candidate who denies the Holocaust, wants to enforce a ban on abortion and has made headlines with scandals.

Donald Trump at an election rally in North Carolina

(Bild: AFP/Logan CYRUS)

15 Wahlleute

Michigan – flüchten Araber zu Trump?

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, is very popular and won re-election two years ago by a margin of almost ten percentage points. The result in November will certainly not be that clear-cut: in 2016, Donald Trump was only 11,000 votes ahead here, while in 2020 the state went to Biden by around two percentage points.

It is unclear whether this success can be repeated for the Democrats, as the industrialized state is home to a particularly large number of Americans of Arab descent who criticize Biden's support for Israel. This group of voters secured victory for the Democrats four years ago. 

Demonstrators in Michigan hold up a sign. It reads: "No votes for murderer Kamala."

(Bild: AFP/JEFF KOWALSKY)

11 Wahlleute

Arizona – Trump leicht im Vorteil

Arizona, on the southern border east of California, plays a key role in both the presidency and the majority in the Senate. The progressive Democrat Ruben Gallego is currently trailing Trump friend Kari Lake in the senatorial election in Arizona.

A referendum on abortion rights could also motivate additional Democrat voters there. At federal level, however, the story is different: Harris' strategists are looking anxiously at poll numbers among young people. Here, support for the Democrats is crumbling. Trump has slight advantages overall. 

10 Wahlleute

Wisconsin – Rennen besonders knapp

Wisconsin is particularly competitive: Trump won there against Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden was ahead of Trump in 2020. Both times, the difference was only around 20,000 out of three million votes cast. Current polls suggest that the race is likely to be particularly close again.

6 Wahlleute

Nevada – seit Jahrzehnten Swing State

Nevada is only sending a few voters to Washington, but they too could be decisive. Economic issues are particularly important in the silver and desert state in the south-west: the recovery after the coronavirus pandemic has been sluggish and unemployment is among the highest in the USA. Around three quarters of people in Nevada live in or around the gambling metropolis of Las Vegas. Since 1976, both Republicans and Democrats have won the state six times each.